HERMAN BEZUIDENHOUT

There’s a familiar pattern playing out again.

Fuel prices go up. WhatsApp groups light up. Social media fills with outrage, predictions and “inside information”. Queues form. Tanks get filled “just in case”.

Sound familiar? We saw it during Covid. We’re seeing it again with fuel. And we see it every time the rand weakens. Different trigger. Same behaviour. Panic.

The truth is, most crises are not just economic events — they are psychological events. The real risk is not always the price of oil but how we react to it. Let’s take a recent example doing the rounds. There’s a meme comparing oil prices today to those in 2022, showing that oil once traded above $130 a barrel, higher than where it is now. The message? “Things aren’t that bad.”

Technically, that’s true. But it’s also incomplete. In 2022, oil spiked to those levels almost overnight, driven by the shock of the Russia-Ukraine war. It was a moment of extreme uncertainty. Markets didn’t know how supply would be affected, whether sanctions would escalate, or how global trade flows would adjust.

So prices overshot. That $130+ level wasn’t a stable price — it was a panic price. And just as quickly as it spiked, it pulled back.

Pressure creates progress. Even inflation, while uncomfortable, can drive behaviour. It can accelerate spending decisions. It can increase revenues for businesses. It can trigger investment

Today we are again dealing with geopolitical tensions. Conflict still plays a role in global energy markets. But the difference is this:

The market has had time to adjust;
Supply chains have been reconfigured;
Alternative flows have been established; and
Producers and consumers have adapted.

So while conflict still influences prices, it doesn’t create the same level of shock. In other words, this is not the same crisis. But the reaction? Very similar.

And that’s where the real issue lies. Because alongside every economic event, there’s another force at play — the infodemic. During Covid, the World Health Organisation warned that the flood of information, misinformation and opinion was as dangerous as the virus itself. Today, we’re seeing the same thing with fuel.

Everyone suddenly becomes an expert.

“Shortages are coming.”

“Fill up now.”

“This is the worst it’s ever been.”

And before long, perception becomes reality. Not because supply has collapsed but because behaviour has changed. People panic-buy. Demand spikes artificially. Pressure builds in the system. And suddenly the fear of a crisis starts creating one. We’ve seen this exact pattern in foreign exchange.

Every time the rand weakens, there’s a rush. Clients want to move money offshore immediately. Importers panic about future costs. Exporters delay decisions, waiting for better rates.

Yet if you zoom out, the rand — like oil — is cyclical. It strengthens. It weakens. It reacts to global flows and sentiment. The mistake is reacting emotionally to short-term movements instead of managing strategically for the long term. The same applies to fuel. Yes, higher oil prices matter. They flow through the entire economy. There’s a simple rule of thumb: a 5% increase in oil prices can add around 0.1% to inflation.

That affects transport, food, production — everything. But that’s only half the story. Higher prices also force adaptation.

Consumers become more efficient.
Businesses optimise logistics.
People rethink consumption.

Pressure creates progress. Even inflation, while uncomfortable, can drive behaviour. It can accelerate spending decisions. It can increase revenues for businesses. It can trigger investment.

The key is not to ignore the pressure but to respond intelligently to it. And this is where the real opportunity lies for South Africa. Instead of reacting to every price movement, we should be asking better questions:

How do we build resilience?
How do we operate more efficiently?
How do we adopt smarter solutions?

Because companies that embrace best-practice systems and digital tools don’t just survive volatility — they position themselves to grow. They become more agile. More informed. More competitive.

The same applies to individuals. Don’t panic-fill your tank. Don’t make rushed financial decisions. Don’t react to headlines instead of facts. Step back. Understand the cycle. Manage your exposure. Think long-term. Because here’s the reality — there will always be another “crisis”. Fuel prices will move again. The rand will weaken again. Markets will fluctuate again. That’s not the exception — it’s the system. The differentiator is not what happens. It’s how you respond.

Covid taught us that fear spreads faster than facts. The fuel narrative is reminding us of the same lesson. So next time the noise builds, whether it’s fuel, FX, or anything else, remember this: the biggest risk is not the price. It’s the panic.

And the best strategy? Don’t panic.

• Bezuidenhout is a global trade and foreign exchange specialist, and founder and CEO of BeztForex