OLEBOGENG RAMATLHODI | Illicit trade, affordability and South Africa’s shrinking fiscal room

South Africa’s illicit trade challenge is no longer just a law-enforcement issue. It is increasingly linked to affordability, informality and the narrowing fiscal space available to the government.

For years, the public debate around illicit trade has followed a familiar script: smugglers, counterfeit goods, lost tax revenue, damaged local industries and the need for stronger enforcement. That account remains true, but it now misses a deeper shift. Illicit trade is becoming more embedded in parts of the economy where formal goods are harder to afford, the informal sector remains a livelihood mechanism for millions, and the state is under pressure to protect households while still collecting enough revenue to keep the fiscal framework credible.

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