SA’s updated Integrated Resource Plan (IRP) 2025 has been welcomed by the gas industry for recognising the fuel’s role in the energy mix, but industry groups said the plan still lacks a credible roadmap to secure supply and build infrastructure.
Electricity & energy minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa released the policy-adjusted IRP over the weekend, projecting that gas will account for 11% of electricity generation by 2039, compared with negligible levels today.
The Industrial Gas Users Association of Southern Africa (IGUA-SA) said the IRP marks a turning point for the sector but leaves critical gaps unaddressed.
“Gas is a versatile energy source offering dispatchable power, industrial feedstock and a bridge to decarbonisation,” said association CEO Jaco Human. “The IRP 2025 validates this perspective.”
IGUA-SA estimates that if implemented, the plan and rising industrial demand could drive a four- to five-fold increase in gas consumption over the next decade. But Human warned that without a clear supply plan, SA risks deepening its dependence on imports.
“SA is pivoting towards a gas-reliant economy without a clear strategy for securing that gas,” he said. “The looming gas cliff represents an imminent economic threat that demands urgent attention.”
The looming gas cliff — caused by dwindling domestic reserves from fields such as Mossel Bay and Pande-Temane — threatens to constrain industrial capacity within the next few years. Despite the urgency, SA still lacks a cohesive roadmap for securing future gas supply.
The looming gas cliff represents an imminent economic threat that demands urgent attention.
— Jaco Human IGUA-SA CEO
Industry players argue that regional gas prospects, particularly along the West Coast, could serve as enablers of industrial growth, but their potential remains largely untapped.
Ramokgopa highlighted the tight timelines ahead, noting that about 6,000MW of new gas-to-power capacity must be operational by 2030, with procurement already under way for 2,000MW. He described this as a delicate balancing act, meeting energy and industrial demand while containing costs and minimising environmental and social impacts.
Human said the country must prioritise the development of domestic and regional gas resources, warning that prolonged reliance on imported liquefied natural gas (LNG) could expose industries to global price volatility and erode competitiveness.
The SA Oil & Gas Alliance (SAOGA) also expressed support for the IRP’s gas focus but emphasised the need for a co-ordinated execution framework to translate policy into action.
“The successful implementation of the IRP depends on developing an execution approach for each technology in the energy mix,” said Craig Morkel, chair of SAOGA’s gas economy leadership team. “For gas, this means planning each corridor — from supply and transport to power generation and industrial offtake — to balance supply and demand with the right-sized infrastructure.”
Success will depend on execution
Morkel said the phased approach outlined in the IRP, beginning with LNG imports and progressing to domestic gas development, is sound, but success will depend on execution.
“Domestic gas is much cheaper than LNG imports and should become the primary source of supply in the 2030s,” Morkel said.
The updated IRP envisions not only a measured expansion of gas but also increases in renewables, nuclear and energy storage, targeting a total of 105,000MW in new generation capacity by 2039.
Both industry bodies said the IRP 2025 provides direction but lacks the practical framework to achieve its ambitions. The coming months, they argued, will test whether the government can move from policy to implementation in a way that secures gas supply, protects affordability and supports industrial growth.
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