Retailers are heading into a subdued Black Friday trading period, with research firm NIQ warning that meaningful year-on-year growth has all but disappeared from one of the country’s biggest retail events.
After years of double-digit surges, NIQ said Black Friday had reached a saturation point, with sales volumes and revenues across technology and durables expected to be largely flat compared with 2024.
The warning comes as retailers scramble to lock in value-driven customers who are shopping more carefully, comparing prices earlier and refusing to spend on deals that do not offer genuine savings. Even as discounting intensifies, household budgets remain tight and consumers are directing what money they do have towards essentials and functional upgrades rather than discretionary splurges.
NIQ expects the toughest competition to be at the low-end and mid-range of the market, where large volumes move and where shoppers are most sensitive to price.
A surge in aggressive discounting is set to define the month, with early November promotions already becoming a standard tactic as brands fight for visibility before Black Friday week.
Last year, one in five products in the tech and durables sector was sold at a 50% discount, a dramatic shift from almost none in 2022 and 2023.
Tight budgets
Across the major categories, NIQ forecasts mixed performance. Smartphones are expected to show a decline in sales value despite stronger unit demand, as shoppers trade down and promotions target entry-level and mid-tier devices. Television sales are set for moderate declines, softening what has traditionally been one of Black Friday’s core drivers.
IT hardware continues its recovery, led by mobile computing, and appliances are expected to post stronger unit sales but weaker revenue as manufacturers lean heavily on discounting. Vacuum cleaners are emerging as an unexpected winner, supported by solid margins and stable demand, while the cooling category is likely to underperform, it said.
The sense of strain and caution is echoed in Pick n Pay’s recently released extensive customer research ahead of Black Friday. The retailer’s Smart Shopper survey shows that while more than half of respondents intend to shop on November 28, many are doing so with tightly defined budgets and clear priorities. Customers want real savings on groceries, toiletries, household basics and essential electronics, and many say they are too financially stretched to participate at all.
According to Pick n Pay, three-quarters of surveyed customers said they wanted discounts on groceries rather than luxury goods and a significant portion plan to use Black Friday to get ahead on December shopping.
Last year, average basket spend fell to R5,183, about R150 lower than in 2023 with consumers concentrating on staple foods and toiletries even as interest grew in clothing, appliances and electronics.
These insights have shaped Pick n Pay’s year-long preparation for the event. The retailer said it had spent months co-ordinating supply, logistics, online capacity and stock levels to ensure consistent availability and deeper discounts across categories.
Its distribution centres had been preparing for higher volumes, particularly in perishable goods, which require longer lead times and tighter collaboration with suppliers.
On the digital front, Pick n Pay’s investments in its asap! platform are aimed at absorbing high-traffic peaks, with faster fulfilment and online-only offers expected to attract customers who want to avoid in-store congestion.
“Black Friday is a major trading event for us and for the SA retail sector. Customer feedback helps us understand how they shop, what they value most and where we can improve,” said Pick n Pay executive online Enrico Ferigolli.
“We have done careful planning around stock levels and aim to have all that our customers need; however, we always caution that ‘when it’s gone, it’s gone’.”
Meanwhile, Massmart’s Makro and Game chains are pushing in a similar direction but with an even longer promotional runway. The company recently launched its “Black November” campaign, which stretches across the full month, with rolling waves of deals designed to meet customers who shop early or wait strategically for price drops. Discounts of up to 50%, free delivery thresholds and next-day pickup are part of the mix, reflecting a stronger emphasis on convenience and predictable service.
‘Shoppers are strategic’
Massmart said stretched consumers were browsing more frequently, delaying big-ticket purchases and treating Black Friday as a month-long value hunt. Appliances, televisions, laptops, premium liquor and bulk groceries were shaping up as strong performers in early data, revealing a blend of practical household needs and long-term savings goals.
“Shoppers are strategic. We’re seeing higher online search and browse activity for big-ticket essentials such as air fryers, fridges, washing machines and for premium liquor, with many customers pausing purchases until our Black Friday windows to lock in long-term savings.
“Bulk grocery value is also a visible theme at Makro, with more customers using bulk deals to lower the total cost of household staples,” Massmart said.
The group is leaning on search trends and online behaviour to decide where to place its sharpest deals and is investing heavily in reliable fulfilment to prevent the kind of bottlenecks that once defined Black Friday trading.
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