Exxaro Resources says total coal product and sales volumes for the 2025 financial year are expected to be in line with the previous year and within its guidance range of 38.9-million tonnes (Mt) to 42.8Mt.
Export sales are also expected to be within the guided range of 6.5Mt to 7.2Mt, finance director Riaan Koppeschaar said in an update on Tuesday.
Koppeschaar said since US President Donald Trump assumed office in January, his policy initiatives had shaped global trade dynamics, triggered inflationary pressures, dampened global investor sentiment, and heightened volatility in financial markets.
As a result, the benchmark API4 Richards Bay Coal Terminal (RBCT) export price for 2025 is expected to average $89 per tonne, free on board (FOB), a significant decline from $105 per tonne in 2024.
The iron ore fines price for the 2025 financial year is expected to average $100 per dry metric tonne, down from $109 per dry metric tonne in FY24, cost and freight (CFR) China.
Looking ahead to the first of the group’s 2026 financial year, Koppeschaar said global economic momentum remains fragile due to the unpredictability of US trade policy.
In commodity markets, adequate thermal coal and gas inventories with a milder northern hemisphere winter reduced the likelihood of the usual end-of-year price uplift; however, upside to demand and prices remained.
South Korea’s lower nuclear availability, cutbacks to Colombia’s supply and the possibility of limited US export availability set a solid foundation into 2026, he said.
“China and India’s pivot towards domestic coal, increased renewable penetration, and the expectations of greater gas price competition in key markets are likely to further shape 2026.
“While the broader transition to renewables continues to shape longer-term trends, short-term supply pressures, growth in electrification, global economic, geopolitical, and geo-economic factors will play a key role in thermal coal market dynamics,” he added.
In South Africa, improved economic activity could stimulate coal demand, especially as Eskom progresses in resolving operational challenges.
“Despite ongoing infrastructure constraints, Exxaro continues to explore all viable routes to market to meet customer needs and unlock value,” he added.
In the iron ore market, rising supply was back in focus with the commissioning of the Simandou operations — Africa’s largest greenfield integrated mine and infrastructure project in Guinea, together with the subdued Chinese demand.
Koppeschaar said Exxaro anticipated that cost pressures and logistical constraints would remain a defining feature of the operating environment.
“However, our focus on driving disciplined cost-optimisation initiatives and unlocking further efficiencies across the value chain will ensure that the business continues to thrive,” he said.
On Tuesday, the group announced the appointment of Fortune Ntlhoro as the executive head of commercial. Ntlhoro is a seasoned commercial and supply chain leader with extensive experience spanning the mining, energy, transport and financial sectors. The appointment completes the group’s management structure with permanent appointments.
During the year, Exxaro successfully completed the disposal of its entire issued share capital in Exxaro FerroAlloys to a consortium led by EverSeed Energy for R250m and the deal became effective at the end of October.
It said the majority of suspensive conditions for the acquisition of select manganese assets from Ntsimbintle Holdings and OMH Mauritius had been fulfilled.
“This achievement represents a significant milestone in advancing our strategic growth ambitions within energy transition metals,” he said.
Would you like to comment on this article?
Sign up (it's quick and free) or sign in now.
Please read our Comment Policy before commenting.