US tariffs wreak havoc on small SA e-tailers, index shows

President Donald Trump’s tariffs have cut in half the exports of small South African businesses shipping their goods to the US via online platforms such as Amazon.

This is according to e-commerce logistics firm TUNL. The firm is warning that these businesses will likely have a tough festive season trading period.

TUNL, which has created the SME export index, which tracks 1,850 merchants to gauge market health, reported that SA’s small exporters to the US lost two-thirds of their expected turnover for Black Friday. While most local businesses had a knockout Black Friday, SME export volumes were down 46% below the monthly average and 66% year on year.

This adds to a general slump that local businesses have seen through 2025.

Read: ANC charts escape from sharp end of US tariffs

While the index shows a 23% increase in exports to the US for October, exports were still 40% below the company’s April 1 baseline, when Trump announced new tariffs on South African exports. In September exports were down by 52%.

While exports to the rest of the world have softened since April, TUNL said the decline has been far less severe than the decrease in shipments to the US. The sharp decline is the result of US trade policies, in particular the de minimis rule. Previously, goods valued at less than $800 attracted no duties, but new policies have increased the costs on such products by 30%-40%.

The index is based on real shipping volumes from a fixed cohort of South African exporters and “provides a monthly barometer of how tariffs are affecting small South African businesses that ship globally”.

TUNL is a logistics company founded five years ago to make shipping affordable and accessible for South African SMEs. At present the company helps more than 3,000 local businesses to export their goods to 160 countries. Its customers include brands such as Ciovita, Versus Socks and Freedom of Movement.

COO Aretha Cooper warned that the trend is likely to continue for the festive season, a traditionally peak selling period for businesses.

PODCAST | Trump tariffs hit SMEs’ exports hard

“The US tariff changes remain in place and the Supreme Court of Appeals is yet to make a finding on their legality. In the meantime, their impact on South African SMEs is clear: businesses that export to the US are in for a tough festive season and an even tougher 2026.”

In an interview with Business Day, Cooper explained that US consumers tend to be unaware that the goods they order on platforms such as Amazon actually come from South Africa. The introduction of tariffs has created big price jumps for such goods.

Unfortunately, many US consumers hit by “sticker shock” have been scared off by the higher prices, thus affecting the small South African exporters.

She said many business owners elected to absorb the cost of the tariffs so as not to lose business. But this course of action is unsustainable given the expense of taking on such costs for small business owners that typically do not have large cash reserves or the size to benefit from economies of scale.