By Mudiwa Gavaza
MTN and other South African companies operating in Nigeria can expect to have a more positive year of business in the West African nation in 2026.
After almost two years of financial pain brought on by a policy change that saw Nigeria’s currency lose more than half its value, MTN is bullish that the group’s largest business is now in recovery and growing.
Like many other companies operating in Nigeria, MTN has been a casualty of the devastation caused by the Nigerian naira’s more than 70% plunge since mid-2023.
The telecom major dipped into the red at the halfway stage of its 2024 financial year, the first time it has reported a loss since 2016, as the devaluation of the naira and the conflict in Sudan weighed on results.
For the third quarter to September, the MTN Group’s strong broad-based performance was led by its businesses in Nigeria and Ghana.
For now, it appears that the pain may be over, with analysts expecting the positive momentum to continue in the coming year.
Economist Bismarck Rewane projects Nigeria’s GDP to be around $250bn in 2025, with an ambitious national aspiration of $1-trillion by 2030. He said while this target is lofty, significant changes are driving performance.
In April, Fitch Ratings upgraded Nigeria’s long-term foreign-currency issuer default rating to “B”, from “B-”, with a stable outlook, reaffirmed in October.
At the time, the agency said its rating reflected an expectation that “the macroeconomic policy stance will sustain improvements in the functioning of the FX market and support the move to lower inflation, although it will likely remain far higher than rating peers”.
“Additionally, we anticipate a continued reduction in external vulnerabilities through further easing of domestic FC supply constraints, while renewed energy sector reforms should help sustain current account surpluses.”
Jacques Nel, head of Africa macro at Oxford Economics, said the Nigerian economy is holding up well despite the subdued oil price environment and pressure from US tariffs.
“Although lower global oil prices are concerning, we think sound oil production and resilient non-oil growth should largely offset oil price compression. Consequently, we have nudged our real GDP growth prediction for 2025 and 2026 higher by 0.2 percentage points.”
“FX reforms should allow the naira to act as an improved buffer against oil price volatility, negating the impact on the oil-dependent nation’s fiscal position and reserves.”
Rewane is particularly bullish about the country’s telecoms sector.
During the recent Parthian Economic Discourse 2025, Rewane described the sector as a “wonder kid” of the Nigerian economy. He specifically used MTN as a case study for corporate efficiency and restructuring.
“When you look at MTN Group, you find that Nigeria is [the major market] for [them] rather than South Africa.”
He said the group had done well in navigating high operational costs, specifically diesel for base stations, by restructuring its business model. He noted the move from heavy losses due to forex and energy costs to becoming highly efficient by selling off their tower infrastructure.
“What were the losses for MTN? The price of diesel... MTN was spending... 250-million naira (about R2.8m) a day on diesel... Base stations all over the place, for forex translation losses.”
“Fast forward, [the company] domesticated all the international debt, sold all the stations to IHS... and what do you have? You had a lean, mean and efficient machine.”
In April 2024, MTN Nigeria convened an emergency meeting of its shareholders to discuss its plans to grow revenue, improve margins and return to profit in an effort to address declines caused by a challenging operating environment.
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