South Africa’s mining sector has entered 2026 on a high, riding the wave of dizzying precious metal prices and long-awaited policy reforms.
In the past year, mounting tension between global superpowers accelerated the scramble for critical minerals while pushing copper, gold and platinum group metals (PGMs) to record highs, tripling the value of the JSE’s precious metals & mining index.
As geopolitical tension continues to intensify, the industry’s winning streak seems likely to extend into the new year amid sustained safe-haven demand — but illegal mining and a shifting policy landscape may throw a spanner in the works.
Here are some of the key developments to look out for in 2026.
Race to a R1-trillion market cap
Apart from Glencore, BHP and Anglo American, which are headquartered outside South Africa, JSE-listed mining giants have never been closer to a landmark R1-trillion valuation on the bourse.
AngloGold Ashanti, with a market cap of about R750bn, is closest to reaching the milestone. Fuelled by record gold prices and an ambitious offshore expansion strategy, the miner’s share price skyrocketed the most yet, up 250% last year.
Following close behind is Gold Fields, another local major that enjoyed stellar earnings last year, expanding its empire with two megadeals valued at R44bn and R25bn each. It too saw a record market performance in 2025, peaking at R728bn in October.
Valterra Platinum is also in the mix. Buoyed by soaring PGM prices and optimism about its split from Anglo American in June, the company on Tuesday breached R400bn for the first time after adding just shy of R240bn last year.
Anglo’s rocky road to restructuring
Anglo American faces myriad challenges in 2026. Chief among them is the group’s proposed merger with Canadian miner Teck Resources in a bid to form a $53bn copper powerhouse.
The deal has secured approval from both parties’ shareholders and from Canadian authorities, but its remaining regulatory approvals are expected to take about another year to iron out, leaving room for opportunistic bids, such as those launched by rival BHP last year, that could derail the merger process.
Meanwhile, Anglo’s internal restructuring to focus on copper, iron ore and potash has hit some speed bumps. The company continues to struggle for a suitable buyer for diamond business De Beers, while the failed sale of its Moranbah North coal mine is likely to result in a costly legal battle with US-based Peabody Resources.
Regulatory shake-up
Investors may be watching closely as long overdue policy talks play out in the local mining sector this year.
The drafting of the Mineral and Petroleum Resources Development Amendment Bill of 2025 marked the industry’s biggest regulatory overhaul in more than two decades.
The bill promises to revitalise exploration of the country’s vast underground reserves, opening the door for increased foreign investment, but its failure to resolve policy uncertainty has drawn criticism from legal experts and industry players.
Mining minister Gwede Mantashe has also promised to roll out an online licensing system to make prospecting easier, but years of delays have left many sceptical.
Gold price opens door to much-needed exploration
South Africa was once the world’s largest gold producer, responsible for two-thirds of global supply, but a lack of new mine discoveries has contributed to a steady decline in exports and employment.
Now, it is not even among the top 10 biggest producers, with output shrinking more than 70% over the past two decades.
Record gold prices are upping the stakes. As the metal’s soaring price offsets strangling energy and labour costs, new opportunities to invest could finally open up in 2026.
In December, Business Day attended the launch of Qala Shallows, South Africa’s first new underground gold mine in 15 years and a potential bellwether for gold investors. Retreatment of waste from Gauteng’s historic mine dumps also offers exposure to gold’s record rally.
Crackdown on illegal mining intensifies
So-called zama zamas are also eyeing South Africa’s derelict gold mines and remain a growing threat to the country’s formal sector.
Mantashe and the SAPS have doubled down on their hardline approach to illegal mining, unfazed by the 72 corpses pulled from an abandoned mine in Stilfontein early last year.
Their crackdown, termed “Vala Umgodi” (“close the hole”), faces a growing challenge in 2026, as gold’s steady ascent drives more zama zamas to try their luck.
Smuggling and theft pose a growing threat to producers in the subsector.
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