Glencore’s return to shareholders over past five years tops R432bn

Glencore on Wednesday announced a surprise special dividend top-up of $800m, taking its total returns to shareholders for the 2026 financial year to $2bn, with the mining major now having returned $27bn to investors since 2021, about 34% of its market capitalisation.

“While the base dividend was broadly in line with our expectations, we did not forecast an additional top-up as we had pencilled in a higher net debt versus what was reported today,” analysts from Morgan Stanley said in a note.

The group reported core earnings of $13.5bn in the 2025 financial year, slightly ahead of the company-compiled consensus of $13.3bn.

The Gary Nagle-led group met its guidance for full-year production volumes for its key commodities, with copper production in the second half of 2025 almost 50% above what it reported in the first half of the year.

The Swiss-headquartered firm is targeting production of more than 1-million tonnes of copper annually by end-2028, eventually surging to 1.6-million tonnes by 2035.

“Glencore’s standalone investment case is strong. Our regularly updated, illustrative annualised free cash flow generation at spot commodity prices is currently a very healthy $7bn. We have a well-diversified business across a range of commodities, supported by one of the best marketing franchises in the industry,” Nagle said.

“We are uniquely positioned to support the energy needs of today while providing many of the transition-enabling commodities the world needs as demand changes. We remain focused on delivering on our 2026 priorities, achieving our operational targets and derisking and successfully progressing our organic production growth options, all with the objective of supporting long-term value creation for shareholders.”

The group’s megamerger with Rio Tinto collapsed earlier this month due to differences in valuation, with Glencore saying it was entitled to 40% of the merged group while Rio Tinto’s stance was a 31% share for Glencore’s shareholders of the combined group.

Glencore said it has unlocked several long-term mining titles and leases from Democratic Republic of Congo (DRC) state-owned Gecamines after reaching a land access agreement for its Kamoto Copper Company (KCC).

In exchange, Gecamines “maintains the rights to any ore reserves extracted from within the leased land package”, Glencore said.

The deal will allow Glencore to extend KCC’s remaining lifespan to about two decades by expanding its tailings storage facility and waste rock dump capacities, it said.

It comes just two weeks after Glencore announced it would sell 40% of its Congolese assets, which include KCC and its Mutanda mine, to Orion Critical Mineral Consortium, a group whose stated mission is to support the US and its allies to secure their domestic critical mineral supplies.

The consortium includes America’s International Development Finance Corporation and the Abu Dhabi-based sovereign investment fund ADQ.

Nagle said earlier this month that the company and Orion would look for opportunities to expand and develop the assets with the DRC government and Gecamines.

KCC is a partnership between Glencore and Gecamines and the DRC. The local government also owns a 5% stake in the Mutanda mine.

Mark Davis, COO of Glencore Copper’s Africa region, said on Wednesday that the agreement will allow it to “unlock the full potential of KCC by increasing efficiencies at the mine, facilities and other key infrastructure requirements”.

The expanded land access should help the operation increase its annual output to about 300,000 tonnes of copper and raise its lifespan into the mid-2040s, he said.