November trading at South African shopping centres outpaced December for the second consecutive year, according to the latest Clur international shopping centre index.
“This growth comes off a strong 2024 base, and December’s usual trading density advantage has narrowed significantly since 2023,” Belinda Clur, MD of Cape Town-based Clur International, said on Friday.
The index tracks quarterly and full-year performances across more than 5.4-million square metres of retail space in South Africa and Namibia.
According to the index, November’s momentum was driven largely by super-regional centres, which recorded year-on-year growth of 6.2%, while regional malls expanded about 4%.
December told a softer story, with growth easing to 2.7% overall as smaller and community centres did much of the heavy lifting.
This growth comes off a strong 2024 base, and December’s usual trading density advantage has narrowed significantly since 2023
— Belinda Clur, Clur International MD
Taken together, the November–December festive window recorded growth of 3.4%, below the full-year expansion of 5%, signalling a late-year cooling, even as retail performance remained ahead of inflation, the index shows.
Provincial dynamics introduced a notable shift in the retail hierarchy.
Gauteng, usually trailing the Western Cape, emerged as November’s strongest performer, posting trading density growth of 5.3%, ahead of the Western Cape’s 4.9% and KwaZulu-Natal’s 3.5%.
However, the festive season as a whole restored the familiar order. The Western Cape reclaimed pole position with combined November and December growth of 4%, followed by Gauteng at 3.8% and KwaZulu-Natal at 2.7%.
On a full-year basis, the Western Cape maintained its lead at 5.7%, with Gauteng close behind at 5.2%, while KwaZulu-Natal closed the year with solid, if more measured, growth of 3.6%.
Super-regionals surge
In rand terms, annualised trading density for 2025 stood at R42,780 per square metre nationally, with super-regional centres leading at R52,524/m² and community and smaller centres at R48,441/m². During the festive season, super-regionals surged to R74,041/m², while community and smaller centres reached R60,298/m².
Rental growth remained steady, with the national base rent-to-sales ratio holding at 6.6%. December base rents rose 5.4% year on year, led by small regional centres at 5.7% and superregionals at 5.4%. The Western Cape again led provincial growth with 6.7%, ahead of KwaZulu-Natal (5.2%) and Gauteng (4.9%).
Retailers will need to sharpen their positioning regarding authenticity and experience-led offerings, said Clur. She said consumers are being drawn to raw, unpolished experiences, from minimally processed foods to visible craftsmanship in fashion and design.
She added that the next phase of growth will favour brands that build emotional connections rather than simply compete on price.
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