Sasol’s share price flirted with two-year highs after climbing nearly 40% in the past month as escalating conflict in the Middle East fuels the biggest oil shock in years.
The energy giant has seen its market value top R100bn for the first time since April 2024 in the past week as soaring oil prices stoke expectations of a profit windfall for the fuel giant.
In the 10 days since the US and Israel struck Iran, Brent crude, the global benchmark for internationally traded oil, has climbed to levels not seen since the early days of Russia’s invasion of Ukraine.
Back then, fears that aggressive international sanctions and Ukrainian strikes would disrupt the supply of Russian oil, which accounts for more than a quarter of Europe’s imports, sent Brent crude to nearly $130 a barrel, its highest level since the 2008 financial crisis.
On Monday, oil traded around $104 a barrel, having peaked at $120 in the morning. It has surged by more than 53% in the past month as markets brace for what could be an even bigger fallout.
Unlike traditional oil majors, Sasol’s business model is based primarily on converting coal and gas into fuel and chemical products. However, global oil prices remain a key benchmark influencing its fuel pricing, revenue and profitability. Investors have piled in, anticipating widening profit margins and revenue growth. Declining oil prices were one of the drivers behind Sasol’s weaker earnings numbers in the first half, leaving room for recovery.
The price surge comes at an opportune time, less than a year after the group set out a well-received three-year growth plan, laid out by CEO Simon Baloyi in May. It focuses on cutting costs and reducing debt to restore its capacity.
Business Day reported that fuel output at its Natref refinery is forecast to increase by as much as 10% in the 12 months to end-June thanks to improved operations.
The price of oil has skyrocketed more than 43% since the start of March as the conflict spreads beyond Iran, threatening to engulf much of the Middle East. Iran has effectively blocked oil tankers from passing through the Strait of Hormuz, arguably the world’s most critical energy transit route through which about a fifth of global oil supply passes.
Al Jazeera reported that Iraq, the United Arab Emirates and Kuwait, three of the biggest producers in Opec, have already cut production in response to an accumulating backlog of barrels with nowhere to go. The three nations, along with other Gulf states — including Saudi Arabia, Bahrain and Qatar ― have been hit by retaliatory Iranian strikes since the war broke out.
Within Iran, Israeli airstrikes have targeted and damaged major oil storage facilities and petroleum transfer terminals around Tehran, further threatening global supply.
This has culminated in a painful market correction from late 2025, when most forecasters expected oil to drift down to the $60 range by mid-2026 amid a supply surplus.
Other local energy players have seen their share prices benefiting from the surge in oil markets. As rising prices make other sources of fuel more attractive, some JSE-listed coal miners have enjoyed buying sprees this month. Coal miner Thungela Resources has seen its share price gain more than 57% since the start of the war, even as it signalled weaker earnings in a trading statement on March 2.
According to Trading Economics, the price of coal hovered near its highest level since November 2024 on Monday.
Sasol plays a central role in South Africa’s energy-centered economy, contributing (directly and indirectly) more than 5% of the country’s GDP, according to Trade & Industrial Policy Strategies and the company’s own research. The group, which employs about 28,000 people worldwide, supplies about 30% of South Africa’s total liquid fuel needs.
Note: March 9 2026
The headline in this story has been corrected to show that Sasol’s market cap is more than R100bn.
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