MTN has shifted its strategic gaze to 2030 on a firmer footing, helped by a turnaround in Nigeria and Ghana after two years of strain on the group.
It has sharpened its focus towards fintech, infrastructure and connectivity for the next five years, refining its “Ambition 2025” strategy, which was premised on reducing debt, exiting operations in the Middle East and growing new businesses such as financial services.
As part of the improved picture for investors, the group has announced a R6bn share buyback while pushing its full-year dividend to 500c from 55c.
While macroeconomic conditions in the group’s largest markets — Nigeria, South Africa and Ghana — have largely improved, creating a favourable foundation for the 2030 plan, that focus may be hampered by rising geopolitical tension, particularly in the Middle East.
Reporting full-year earnings to end-December, MTN said that while prevailing macro conditions are supportive of the business, it notes the rapidly evolving developments in global geopolitics.
“Notably, the conflicts in the Middle East, Ukraine and elsewhere create added uncertainty for global and local macro conditions, including potential effects on indicators such as energy supply and prices, foreign exchange rate volatility and the trajectory of inflation in our markets.”
Over the years, macroeconomic conditions in the group’s largest markets and geopolitical issues have had a major effect on its investment case and perception by the market. For example, shocks in the oil market tend to have adverse effects on Nigeria — a large oil producer — which in turn affects investor sentiment towards MTN.
In 2023, Nigeria’s central bank decided to let the local currency float freely, which plunged MTN into two years of financial turmoil while a new operational baseline was being determined.
MTN said: “If sustained, the escalating geopolitical risks may adversely affect our operating environment and prospects, including our market guidance.”
The group sees its execution of the 2025 plan as largely successful. It exited its businesses in the Middle East — including Syria, Yemen and Afghanistan — as part of the five-year slim-down plan unveiled in 2019 to reduce risk, sell noncore assets such as towers and masts, and raise about R25bn.
The biggest item yet to be ticked off the list is an exit from the Iranian business, a matter that has been hampered by geopolitical issues around that country. The US-Israel-Iran war underscores the complications associated with operating in Iran and provides further impetus for the group’s rationale to exit.
“In the final year of our Ambition 2025 strategy, MTN Group is proud to have exceeded the 300-million customer milestone, in alignment with our priority to deepen digital and financial inclusion in the markets we serve,” said CEO Ralph Mupita. “We remain committed to leading digital solutions for Africa’s progress.”
Group earnings before interest, tax, depreciation and amortisation (ebitda) before one-off items grew 36.8% in constant currency to R98.5bn for the year, reflecting an expansion in margin by 5.4 percentage points to 44.5%. On a reported basis, ebitda was up 64%.
The group reported a profit after tax of R27.4bn after a loss of R10.9bn a year ago. Adjusted HEPS was up 67% at 1,359c.
Total customers grew 5.6% to 307.2-million after MTN connected 16.3-million net new customers to its networks, with active data customers rising 9.4% to 172.6-million and Mobile Money (MoMo) monthly active customers up 10% to 69.5-million.
By market close on Monday, shares in Africa’s largest mobile provider had gained the most in five months, up 7% at R195.72, signalling a positive reaction to the earnings report. The group is now valued at about R359bn.
• MTN’s share price was updated in this article on March 16 2026.
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