Anglo tops R1-trillion market cap in build-up to mega-merger

Anglo American’s market value has topped R1-trillion in the past week as investors pile on ahead of the mining giant’s big copper tie-up.

The milestone comes as JSE-listed mining companies have been racing to secure their spots among the bourse’s largest miners amid a boom in prices and investment.

Hot on the trail of its former parent, AngloGold Ashanti has also been closing in on R1-trillion, reaching R872bn this week after doubling in value over the past year.

Clouding the outlook, however, is the medium-term fallout of the Iran war. The shock to energy markets is expected to raise miners’ operating costs, dent global growth and disrupt the commodity boom in the coming months.

Shares in Anglo were flat on Tuesday after four straight days of gains, nearing record highs of R950, as copper prices continued to climb above $13,000 a tonne amid projected supply shortfalls.

The metal’s price has conveniently soared in the build-up to Anglo’s rebranding, setting the stage for a stellar debut, which the company expects to happen in late 2026 once it crosses regulatory hurdles.

Anglo Teck would be the world’s fifth-largest producer of copper, offering shareholders more than 70% exposure to copper. The combined group is now expected to be worth about $95bn at present share prices, compared with an estimated $53bn when Anglo announced the merger last year.

“The market isn’t valuing what Anglo American is today; it’s pricing in what Anglo Teck could become,” said MP9 Asset Management chief investment officer Aheesh Singh.

“The long‑term story for copper is built around AI data centres, grid infrastructure and electrification pushing the market into deficit. Over time, Anglo Teck may emerge as a consolidator of copper assets globally."

Demand for copper, which is expected to increase 50% by 2040, rose 40% in the past year. Global supply, which is already limited by a dwindling number of new discoveries, has been further pressured by a recent mudslide at the world’s second-largest mine in Indonesia and production hiccups at Chile’s Quebrada Blanca mine.

China has announced plans to halt exports of sulphuric acid, an input for processing copper, from May, which might further dampen global supply and buoy prices.

After a temporary dip in the early days of the Iran war, Anglo’s shares have staged a sharp recovery since end-March, rising by more than 22%.

But concerns about the lasting impact of Middle East tensions still loom over the mining sector.

A recent note by JPMorgan, the US’s largest bank, suggests that much of the downside macroeconomic risk stemming from the Iran war is not fully priced in. It expects copper prices to fall to $11,100–$11,200 a tonne by early 2027, down from an average $13,500 this quarter.

Copper demand is often seen as a barometer of the world’s economic health, given its wide use in major industrial sectors. As rising oil prices and potential interest rate hikes have threatened the economic growth outlook, so too are copper demand expectations dampening.

“Bearish macro risks should continue to dominate in copper as long as energy prices remain on the rise in the near term, calling into question the extent of potential demand destruction,” said JPMorgan head of base and precious metals strategy Gregory Shearer.