Kumba Iron Ore expects its full-year earnings to rise by as much as 23%, boosted by the higher average realised free-on-board (FOB) export ore price, a 2% increase in sales volumes and penalty income from Transnet.
The company said on Thursday it expects headline earnings for the year ended December to be between R13.86bn and R15.33bn, and HEPS between R43.22 and R47.81, an increase of between 11% and 23% on the year before.
The increase was partly offset by the effects of a stronger rand against the dollar, it said.
The group also released production figures, which showed total production increased 10% to 8.6-million tonnes, driven by a 15% increase in Sishen’s production. Full-year output was up 1% to 36.1-million tonnes.
This was partially offset by a planned decrease of 5% in Kolomela’s production to rebuild plant feedstock to optimal levels, demonstrating the flexible production approach of managing Sishen and Kolomela as an integrated mine complex, it said.
Sales softened to 8.7-million tonnes in the fourth quarter, but were up 2% to 37 Mt for the year.
Kumba achieved an average realised FOB export iron ore price of $95 per wet metric tonne (wmt) up from $92/wmt a year ago, outperforming the iron ore FOB benchmark price of $85/wmt.
CEO Mpumi Zikalala said the solid performance in 2025 reflects the resilience of its operations.
“As we strengthen the fundamentals of our business, we recognise the need to further improve asset reliability and enhance cost efficiency, while progressing the ultra-high-dense-media-separation (UHDMS) project, a key enabler of long-term value creation.
“Our collaboration with Transnet, through the ore users’ forum, combined with disciplined execution across the value chain, ensured delivery within the company’s full-year sales guidance and allowed us to benefit from a stable iron ore price environment,” she said.
Ore railed to Saldanha Bay port increased by 2% to 8.6 Mt in the fourth quarter despite two derailments following the 10-day annual rail and port maintenance shutdown in October. Shipments were constrained by 26 days of single loading due to the planned refurbishment of a stacker reclaimer, as well as high wind speeds at the port.
Production guidance for 2026 is unchanged at 31-million tonnes to 33-million tonnes and will be lower than 2025, reflecting the main tie-in of the UHDMS project, which is planned in the second half of the year.
Sales guidance for 2026 of between 35-million tonnes and 37-million tonnes, includes the planned drawdown of finished stock. Production guidance for 2027 and 2028 is at 35-million tonnes to 37-million tonnes, it added.
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