SA’s power grid will only remain secure until end-2030, with government forecasts outlined in the Integrated Resource Plan (IRP 2025) seeing rising supply risks as coal stations are decommissioned and the state embarks on a R2-trillion energy transition.
The IRP 2025, published this week, outlines the country’s long-term power strategy and marks the most comprehensive update of energy policy since widespread private-sector generation was unlocked two years ago.
The new plan is a marked departure from IRP 2023, which controversially scaled back on electricity generation from wind and solar.
The power grid is expected to remain adequate until 2030, provided Eskom meets planned improvements in the availability of its ageing coal fleet. The plan signals that beyond that point the grid becomes increasingly vulnerable as baseload capacity drops and the pace of renewable integration accelerates. The state identifies the period from 2029 onwards, when about 8GW of coal-fired capacity is due to leave the system, as a critical inflexion.
‘Policy decisions should be carefully crafted’
“When the anticipated shutdown of Eskom coal-fired stations materialises as a result of the 50-year life of plant in 2030-40, the power system will be the most vulnerable. High bouts of unserved energy and higher utilisation of gas-fired plants will be observed and will affect the resilience of the power system negatively. For these reasons, policy decisions should be carefully crafted to mitigate against this,” the document notes.
“Delaying the shutdown of existing coal-fired capacity provides contingency for the following: the requirement for future new-build generation capacity to maintain security of supply in the power sector and risk in the rollout of the transmission infrastructure projects as envisioned in the current Transmission Development Plan.”
The IRP models several possible pathways, all of which require large-scale capital investment in new generation, storage and transmission infrastructure.
Across scenarios, total system costs are projected to exceed R2-trillion.
The government expects electricity demand to reach 255TWh by 2030 and has set a target energy-availability factor of 66%-68% for Eskom’s coal stations over the same period. Further declines in performance, or delays to private-sector projects, would risk tightening supply margins and renewed instability, the document notes.
Since 2022, private companies have been permitted to build generation without a licensing cap, resulting in more than 13GW of projects either operational or under development. Public procurement programmes account for a further 6.2GW though transmission constraints continue to hamper connection timelines.
Strategic element
Nuclear power is retained as a strategic element in the long-term mix. While not presented as an immediate solution to near-term supply pressures, the IRP endorses a nuclear industrialisation programme and models a 2.5GW build by 2036 under one scenario, rising to 12GW by 2050 in an accelerated case.
However, the IRP emphasises that flexibility will be critical as intermittent generation grows. Storage capacity, including pumped hydro and batteries, is expected to expand while gas is assigned a prominent role as a bridging fuel. The IRP’s preferred pathway assumes 6GW of combined-cycle gas-turbine capacity by 2030, backing wind and solar during peak periods and periods of low output.
Transmission expansion is identified as a binding constraint. The latest Transmission Development Plan calls for nearly 14,500km of new high-voltage lines by 2034, including more than 5,000km by 2029, to open up wind-rich coastal provinces and connect private projects. Delays would increase the risk of power shortfalls even if new generation materialises.
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