South Africa recorded a preliminary trade surplus of R15.6bn in October, down from a revised R22.3bn in September, the South African Revenue Service (Sars) has said.
This was below consensus expectations.
The surplus resulted from exports of R192.2bn and imports of R176.6bn, inclusive of trade with Botswana, Eswatini, Lesotho and Namibia (BELN).
This means South Africa still exported more than it imported in October, but the surplus was smaller as imports grew faster than exports. The gap narrowed mainly because import values rose sharply on the back of higher purchases of crude oil, petroleum oils (excluding crude) and original equipment components, while exports were supported by gold, diamonds and unwrought aluminium.
Month on month, exports increased by R5.2bn (2.8%), while imports rose by R11.8bn (7.2%). On a year-on-year basis, exports were 7.4% higher than in October 2024, and imports were 7.3% higher over the same period. The trade surplus from January to October stood at R142.7bn, slightly below the R148.1bn recorded in the comparable period of 2024.
“Precious metal and stone exports increased by 21% month on month in October, with the average gold price up over 50% year on year,” said Investec economist Lara Hodes. “According to the World Bank, the surge in the gold price has been driven largely by investment demand, supported by a combination of geopolitical tensions, macroeconomic concerns, and heightened policy uncertainty.”
Sars noted that the September surplus was revised upward by R0.5bn to R22.3bn following routine vouchers of correction — adjustments made to reflect late declarations and data corrections by traders.
Excluding BELN trade, South Africa posted a surplus of R3.5bn with the rest of the world, from exports of R172.5bn and imports of R169bn. Within the BELN region, the surplus was R12.1bn, based on exports of R19.7bn and imports of R7.6bn, both up 11% from September.
By world region, the largest trade surplus was recorded with Africa (R30.98bn), followed by Europe (R2.2bn). Deficits were posted with Asia (R39.9bn). Exports to Asia were valued at R57.5bn, to Europe R44.3bn, to Africa R49.9bn, to the Americas R17bn and to Oceania R2bn. Imports from Asia totalled R97.4bn, from Europe R42.1bn, from Africa R19bn, from the Americas R16.2bn and from Oceania R1.7bn.
“Going forward, we expect the trade account to remain in a surplus position, supported by strong precious metals prices. However, results from the JPMorgan global manufacturing PMI survey indicate that producers still remain cautious in the current environment, with ‘the future output PMI’ decreasing at the start of the fourth quarter,” Hodes said.
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