South African agribusiness confidence picked up modestly in the fourth quarter, buoyed by improved export performance, favourable weather conditions and signs of progress in tackling foot-and-mouth disease, a long-running challenge for the livestock sector.
After falling for two consecutive quarters, the Agbiz/IDC Agribusiness Confidence Index (ACI) rose by five points to 67, up from 62 in the previous quarter, according to a release by the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA (Agbiz).
The index is now well above the neutral 50-point threshold, indicating that agribusiness leaders remain optimistic about the outlook for the sector.
Conducted in late November, the index captures the views of at least 25 decision-makers across various agricultural subsectors on key factors affecting business conditions. It remains a key leading indicator of investment appetite, sectoral performance and rural economic health.
“Still, the recovery of the sector this year will likely be uneven. We see better production conditions in the horticulture and field crops. However, the livestock industry is under pressure due to foot-and-mouth disease,” said Agbiz chief economist Wandile Sihlobo.
The recovery in confidence was led by a strong rebound in export volumes, which surged 32 points to 75, reflecting the resilient agricultural trade. “This is unsurprising as South Africa’s agricultural exports have remained strong since the start of the year despite significant trade policy shifts and uncertainty,” Agbiz said.
The country recorded $11.7bn in export earnings in the first nine months of the year — a 10% rise compared to the same period in 2024.
The capital investment subindex also rose sharply, climbing seven points to 74, supported by robust sales of tractors and combine harvesters. More than 6,100 tractors were sold between January and October, an 11% year-on-year increase. Combine harvester sales also grew 8%.
Expectations of above-average rainfall during the 2025–26 summer season, due to a La Niña weather pattern, contributed to a 4-point rise in the general agricultural conditions subindex to 71.
The employment subindex edged up to 53, reflecting incremental improvements in on-farm employment. “For example, while a bit more backward-looking, the number of farm jobs in South Africa increased slightly from the second quarter of 2025, by 2% to 920,000 in [the third quarter],” Agbiz said.
The general economic conditions subindex improved three points to 62. According to Agbiz, this improvement aligns with broader macroeconomic optimism in the country, supported by S&P’s recent credit rating upgrades, South Africa’s removal from the FATF greylist and a series of positive reforms driven by the implementation of Operation Vulindlela.
Similarly, the market share subindex gained 11 points to reach 71, pointing to stronger domestic positioning for many agribusinesses.
Despite the overall improvement in confidence, two subindices — turnover and net operating income — declined slightly.
“[The turnover subindex] was primarily driven by views from the winter crop-growing regions, which reflect the fact that, while the harvest is relatively large, prices are lower. Still, a level of 71 is quite good and well above the 50-neutral mark,” Agbiz remarked.
“What will help in the recovery going into 2026 will be the speedy vaccination process against foot-and-mouth disease in the roughly 12-million national herd of cattle, with 7.2-million of them in commercial production,” Sihlobo said.
The department of agriculture recently said it would vaccinate the entire national herd, as foot-and-mouth disease, whose epicentre is in KwaZulu-Natal, had spread to five other provinces.
“Moreover, the La Niña rains will help in horticulture and field crops,” Sihlobo said, emphasising the collaborative efforts between business and government on pushing for better management of the municipalities, addressing rural crime, and the release of the government-owned land to appropriately selected beneficiaries. “This is key for long-term expansion in the sector,” he said.
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