South Africa ends 2025 on a busy note, with two packed weeks of key data releases and economic signals.
From retail sales and inflation to consumer confidence and manufacturing, the final stretch of the year will offer insight into household demand, business activity and the outlook for monetary policy in 2026.
On Tuesday, attention turns to the FNB/BER consumer confidence index for the fourth quarter. The index dipped to minus 13 in the third quarter after briefly improving in the second quarter. A further decline would signal fragile consumer sentiment.
On Wednesday, retail trade sales for October will give a snapshot of household spending ahead of Black Friday. Nedbank forecasts 2.5% year-on-year growth, moderating from 3.1% in September, as consumers likely deferred purchases to capitalise on promotions. Nonetheless, momentum appears positive, supported by a softer inflation backdrop and lower borrowing costs.
Industrial production data for October will follow on Thursday. Nedbank expects mining output to rise 2.9% year on year, aided by higher commodity prices and marginal logistics improvements. But manufacturing production is forecast to contract 1.7% year on year, reflecting continued weakness in heavy industries.
“Some parts of manufacturing are starting to experience the benefits of the recovery in domestic demand, particularly the more consumer-orientated subsectors,” the bank said, but added the combined weight of these subsectors will be too small to offset the weaker performance of the larger industries. “As a result, total manufacturing output remains weak.”
Stats SA will also release wholesale and motor trade data, completing the picture for the domestic trade sector.
The BER’s inflation expectations survey for the fourth quarter, due on Friday, will be closely watched. This will be the first such survey since the formal announcement of the new 3% inflation target. If expectations show a downward shift, it could strengthen the case for rate cuts in 2026, offering policymakers assurance that the new target is gaining credibility.
“All responses came in after the announcement,” said BER chief economist Lisette IJssel de Schepper. “In recent quarters, expectations have been trending lower, in line with actual inflation moving down. While actual inflation ticked up in recent months, the announcement of the lower target could mean that expectations shifted down once more in the fourth quarter,” she said.
“If so, this would be welcomed by the Reserve Bank and, if sustained, would be an important tick on the checklist for further rate cuts.”
Next week, November’s consumer price index and producer price index releases are due, with both expected to confirm the gradual uptick projected for the second half of the year.
Rounding out the year, the Reserve Bank’s quarterly bulletin will provide a deeper dive into financial flows and macro trends heading into 2026.
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