US tariffs squeeze South African wine exports as costs surge

By early 2026, US imports of South African wine are about 17 percentage points more expensive relative to other wine-exporting countries than in 2024, according to the latest global trade update from the UN Conference on Trade and Development (Unctad).

South African wine exporters are confronting a much more difficult environment in the US after recent changes to American trade policy. These include levying up to 30% on numerous South African exports, including wine.

The report highlights the effect of the new tariff regime on South African suppliers’ ability to compete in the world’s biggest wine market.

The South African wine industry contributes R56.5bn to the country’s GDP and employs 270,364 people across the value chain, of which 85,962 work on farms and cellars, according to South African Wine Industry Information and Systems (Sawis)

Unctad cautions that while trade won’t grind to a halt, the higher costs make it more likely that US buyers gradually switch to cheaper suppliers elsewhere.

“In the context of recent US trade measures, the scale and direction of tariff changes have had measurable implications for exporters’ competitiveness in accessing the US market,” it states.

In its February 2026 Global Trade Update, Unctad identifies wine as one of the examples of how recent US trade measures have reshaped competitive dynamics among foreign suppliers.

Trade complexity

South African wine exporters have recently reported that the US government’s August 2025 tariff hikes, a 30% duty on imported wine, have coincided with weaker demand and trade complexity in a global market grappling with softer consumption and rising barriers.

Packaged wine exports to the US fell by 21% in volume and 23% in dollar value in 2025, according to the latest data from industry body South Africa Wine.

“The effects have been uneven, as suppliers have moved from largely uniform tariff treatment to sharply differentiated tariff levels depending on the origin,” the report says, noting that the US has moved away from a system in which “access to the US market was primarily governed by World Trade Organisation (WTO) most favoured nation (MFN) rules under which most trading partners faced similar tariff rates”.

In 2024, nearly two-thirds of US imports entered under WTO most-favoured-nation rules, meaning most exporters competed on an about equal footing. By early 2026, only about 20% of US imports remained subject to MFN or duty-free rates as average applied tariffs rose by nearly 15 percentage points.

“These relative tariff differences are likely to shape procurement strategies and may gradually shift trade flows,” the report says.

South Africa is grouped alongside Brazil and China as large emerging economies that faced steeper-than-average tariff increases, leaving other suppliers comparatively better off.

“For many trading partners, the recent US tariff measures are expected to alter relative competitiveness in the US market.

“In several product categories, tariffs have increased more sharply for some large emerging economies, including Brazil, China and South Africa, resulting in comparatively smaller increases for other suppliers,” the report says.