Africa’s mining sector faces widening divergence across key commodities in 2026, as energy-transition demand supports prices for copper and platinum while rising supply and structural shifts weigh on metals such as palladium and iron ore, according to a recent S&P Global Market Intelligence report.
The Metals Price Outlook 2026 report finds that platinum, a cornerstone of South Africa’s mining industry, is expected to remain in a structural supply deficit, largely due to constrained local output. Analysts say tight supply is likely to support prices despite moderate demand growth, maintaining South Africa’s influence on global platinum markets.
Prospects for palladium are, however, weaker. The report forecasts that its supply deficit will narrow as electric vehicle adoption reduces demand for catalytic converters, historically the metal’s largest end-use. This, according to the report, points to divergent market conditions within South Africa’s platinum group metals (PGM) sector.
Transition metals linked to electrification and decarbonisation are expected to perform strongly in 2026. Copper is forecast to benefit from supply disruptions and continued demand from renewable energy systems, grid expansion and electric vehicle manufacturing. African copper-producing regions are expected to remain key sources for global transition-metal supply chains.
Cobalt markets are projected to tighten, with Democratic Republic of Congo, which dominates global production, playing a central role. Export quotas and regulatory interventions are expected to push the market into deficit, affecting global battery metal supply.
In bulk commodities, iron ore prices are expected to trend lower as new supply enters the market, particularly from West Africa. However, the Simandou project in southeastern Guinea, one of the world’s largest untapped high-grade iron ore deposits, is increasing production.
The report notes that rising output from Simandou, combined with China’s steel output cuts, is expected to put structural downward pressure on iron ore prices, reinforcing Africa’s role in global bulk commodity markets.
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