The country’s vulnerability to fuel supply issues is back in focus as escalating conflict in the Middle East exposes the country’s thinning reserves and deepening dependence on imported petroleum products
Fears have been stoked further due to the disruption to the Strait of Hormuz which roughly 20% of global crude supply transits. Brent crude briefly topped $100 a barrel on Monday following US and Israeli strikes on Iran, reigniting concerns about energy security in Africa’s most industrialised economy.
The Department of Mineral and Petroleum Resources moved to calm nerves this week saying there is currently no immediate risk of fuel shortages and that it remains in continuous contact with oil companies to ensure supply stability.
The department said local producers NATREF, Astron Energy, and Sasol’s Secunda coal-to-liquids plant, remain operational with crude sourced primarily from West Africa and elsewhere on the continent, limiting direct exposure to Middle Eastern supply routes.
Astron Energy’s refinery is currently offline for planned maintenance though the company has secured sufficient imports to cover the gap.
“Unfortunately, the continued rise in international crude oil prices is expected to result in higher fuel prices at the pump from April 2026. The under-recovery on fuel prices has been fluctuating since the onset of the conflict and the department will continue to monitor the situation closely. Further updates will be provided in due course ahead of the official April fuel price adjustments,” the department said.
But analysts warn the structural problem runs deeper as a wave of domestic refinery closures in recent years has left South Africa increasingly reliant on finished fuel imports, stripping the economy of the buffers that once cushioned it against global price swings.
Oil companies importing refined products from conflict-affected regions are already scrambling to secure alternative supply sources, the department acknowledged.
“A prolonged escalation could push Brent to between $100 and $120 a barrel,” said Handré Retief, portfolio manager at Novare Holdings. He estimates such a scenario would lift transport costs, accelerate inflation, shave 0.5 to 1 percentage point off economic growth, and drive government bond yields toward 10% to 11%.
A diplomatic resolution, however, could rapidly reverse those pressures. Retief sees oil retracing to the $70-to-$80 range in a de-escalation scenario, a level that would ease inflation and open the door for interest-rate cuts.
In the near term, South African motorists face steep increases. The Central Energy Fund’s latest projections signal petrol could rise by more than R3 per litre in April, with diesel potentially climbing over R5 if current oil-price trends hold.
Herman van Papendorp, head of asset allocation at Momentum Investments, said financial markets are absorbing the conflict primarily through the oil-price channel. Historical precedent, he noted, suggests geopolitical shocks tend to produce short-lived market dislocations unless they tip the US economy into recession. This outcome is, however, unlikely given current US economic conditions.
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