Manufacturing output contracts in ominous sign for economic growth

Sector is also bracing for higher input costs due to rocketing oil prices

Manufacturing production contracted 0.7% month-on-month in January. (Picture: BHAWIKA CHHABRA/Reuters)

Manufacturing production contracted 0.7% in January compared with the same month a year ago, largely the result of weak performances in the wood products, publishing and printing sectors, and basic iron and steel.

Thursday’s data from Stats SA follows its report of anaemic GDP for 2025, with factory output the biggest dampener.

Wood and wood products, paper, publishing and printing slumped 11% year on year, while basic iron and steel, non-ferrous metal products, metal products and the machinery sectors were down 5.7% over the same period.

This was partly offset by petroleum, chemical, rubber and plastic products, which rose 6.7%.

Seasonally adjusted manufacturing production increased by 1.5% in January compared with December, snapping two consecutive monthly declines.

However, production fell 1.7% in the three months ended January compared to the preceding three months, with seven of the 10 manufacturing divisions reporting a contraction in the period.

On Tuesday, Stats SA reported a 0.6% contraction in manufacturing helped restrict overall economic growth to 0.4% in the fourth quarter of 2025. The sector was also largely behind the sluggish 1.1% expansion reported for all of 2025, below National Treasury’s forecast of 1.4%.

The industrial sector is bracing for higher production costs this year as the conflict in the Middle East rages on with no end in sight, pushing oil prices higher.

*Update, 7 April 2026: This story previously said manufacturing output contracted 0.7% month on month and has been corrected to reflect the change was year on year. The error is regretted.

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