The South African Revenue Service (Sars) will on Wednesday release the preliminary revenue collection results for the 2025/26 financial year in a data-heavy week which will also see the announcement of steep fuel price hikes due to the Middle East conflict.
In February, finance minister Enoch Godongwana revised the 2025/26 gross tax revenue estimate upward by R21.3bn, citing higher-than-expected net VAT, corporate income tax and dividends tax collections.
The outlook has however turned bleaker since the US and Israel attacked Iran, pulling the global oil market into a spiral and worsening growth prospects for global economies including South Africa.
The South African Reserve Bank (Sarb) will kick off this week’s data releases with private sector credit extension (PSCE) numbers for February. In January, PSCE growth edged slightly higher to 8.8% year on year from 8.7% previously, driven by strong corporate credit and a recovery in household credit expansion.
“We expect the recovery in credit demand to have continued into 2026. PSCE growth is projected to increase … to 9.1%, with improvements expected across all the subcomponents, reflecting improving domestic conditions,” Nedbank said.
“Growth in bank credit, excluding investment and bills, is forecast to remain robust at 7.8% year on year for the third month in a row. Both corporate and household lending are expected to contribute.”
Ahead of Wednesday’s revenue data, Sars will on Tuesday publish the trade balance for February. The country recorded a narrower surplus of R9.3bn in January from R22.4bn in December.
Nedbank expects the trade surplus to have widened to R10.5bn in February as export activity rebounded from the muted performance seen in December and January.
Also on Tuesday, Stats SA will publish formal non-agricultural employment numbers for the fourth quarter of 2025. In the third quarter, 29,000 formal jobs were created, but employment was still down 79,000 or 0.7%.
On the same day, the Sarb will publish its March quarterly bulletin, with comprehensive analysis and statistical data on the country’s economy and financial system. It comes after the bank kept its benchmark interest rate unchanged last week, citing upward risks to the inflation outlook emanating from higher oil prices.
Absa’s manufacturing PMI report for March on Wednesday will probably show another dip after the seasonally adjusted index fell to 47.4 in February.
“Manufacturing conditions remain constrained by port delays, electricity disruptions and weak demand,” First National Bank said in a note.
Later on Wednesday, new vehicle sales data for March will be the first indicator of whether the steep fuel price increases expected from April and in coming months will dampen consumers’ appetite to buy cars.
“It will also be interesting to see whether the … new vehicle sales reflect renewed caution from consumers, amid fears of higher fuel costs and fewer interest rate cuts,” Bureau for Economic Research analyst Lisette IJssel de Schepper said.
“Vehicle sales have been on a strong run, and the further uptick in the FNB/BER Consumer Confidence Index this week would normally have supported strong sales — but the fieldwork was done before the war escalated, so the consumer mood may have soured since.”
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