South Africa’s citrus industry expects exports to grow by up to 5% this year, despite uncertainties linked to how the Middle East war will affect demand, shipping and fuel availability.
Should estimates for late mandarins, expected in a month’s time, be in line with their historical trajectory, total citrus exports across are expected to increase 3%-5% to between 210-million and 215-million 15kg cartons, the Citrus Growers’ Association of Southern Africa (CGA) said.
It expects to export 45.9-million cartons of lemons to top markets, a 10% increase from last year’s exported figure of 41.6-million cartons due to a significant number of young trees coming into production in the Sundays River Valley, as well as the Senwes region’s recovery from hail damage in past seasons.
Exports of navel oranges are, however, expected to decrease 5% to 30-million cartons compared with 2025 but will still be in line with the long-term growth trajectory and up 10% from 2024 volumes.
The Valencia orange export crop will rise 1.6% to 63-million cartons while grapefruit exports are estimated at 15.7-million 17kg cartons, up 16% from last year.
The citrus industry employs 140,000 people at farm level and is South Africa’s largest agricultural export industry. About 95% of the national citrus crop moves by road to ports, meaning the sector will be affected by a steep rise in the price of diesel, despite the government cutting the fuel levy by R3 to soften the blow.
All in all, the sector is concerned about the long-term effects of the US and Israeli war against Iran on demand, shipping, fuel availability and input costs, CGA CEO Boitshoko Ntshabele said.
“The global environment impacting the season will likely mean that everyone will need to be highly responsive and adaptable, but we have weathered such large challenges in the past,” Ntshabele said.
“Considering the global instability, it is essential that attention be given to factors which are within South Africa’s control and can unlock the potential of our citrus export sector. Enhanced market access to China, India and the US would provide a meaningful boost to the industry.”
The sector is also still trying to resolve what Ntshabele called the EU’s “unnecessary and unscientific plant health requirements for South African citrus”.
The EU’s regulations include zero tolerance for pests such as citrus black spot and false codling moth, compulsory cold treatment as well as strict inspection and interception rules.
The CGA was established by citrus growers in the wake of deregulation in 1997 and represents the interests of about 1,400 export producers across Southern Africa, including Zimbabwe, Mozambique, Botswana, Eswatini and Namibia.
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