Stats SA will on Tuesday publish mining production data, which is expected to show continued growth in February after a strong 4.6% year-on-year expansion in January, driven by platinum group metals (PGMs), chromium ore and manganese ore.
The mining sector has been one of the better performers in the South African economy in recent months, with stronger prices boosting margins, particularly those of PGM miners. Sustained demand for internal combustion engines and tariff uncertainty saw the price of platinum climb nearly 6% in January after surging 22.6% in December.
“The main question is whether this momentum was sustained into February or whether volatility in commodity prices and logistical constraints are starting to weigh on output again,” Bureau for Economic Research (BER) analyst Lisette IJssel de Schepper said.
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Economists are cautioning that the February data will not reflect the impact of the recent increase in local fuel prices, which is likely to place additional upward pressure on cost structures in coming months.
Economists at Nedbank are anticipating strong mining output growth of 7.4% year on year in February.
“The sector has been benefiting — and should continue to benefit — from firmer demand conditions and stronger commodity prices in select segments, despite ongoing operational inefficiencies and elevated energy costs,” Nedbank said in a note.
While mining output is not one of the biggest contributors to South Africa’s economy, it contributes a significant 5%-6% to the overall GDP number.
On the international front, China’s first-quarter GDP print on Thursday will be of interest for South Africa, given its implications for global commodity demand.
The other local economic highlight this week will be the South African Chamber of Commerce and Industry’s (Sacci) latest business confidence index after a dip to 131.4 in January from 133.2 the previous month.
Sacci CEO Alan Mukoki warned in late March that the disruptions to major oil supply routes and supply chains as a result of the war in the Middle East do not bode well for the South African economy, which grew by just 1.1% in 2025. These concerns are likely to be reflected in the March business confidence index.
Economists at banking group Citi will on Thursday discuss the evolving global landscape and its implications for economies in Sub-Saharan Africa and provide clarity on the forces shaping the region’s economic trajectory.
While global attention remains on geopolitics in the Middle East, the more consequential story for African markets lies in how these shocks are being transmitted through energy prices, capital flows and global trade routes, with significant implications for inflation, growth and the investment outlook, Citi says.
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