The Middle East conflict could put a spanner in the recovery of South Africa’s tourism industry, with higher travelling costs as well as disruptions to international flights from that region likely to dent the number of arrivals in the country in coming months.
The sector could offset some of those losses by bidding to host conferences that are being shifted from places such as Qatar and the United Arab Emirates, Tourism Business Council of South Africa CEO Tshifhiwa Tshivhengwa said, echoing recent sentiments from Business Leadership South Africa CEO Busisiwe Mavuso.
The country, however, needs to invest more money into presenting competitive bids, Tshivhengwa said in an interview with Business Day.
“The impact is not being felt now in a heavy way, but if the situation in the Middle East continues and doesn’t get resolved we will have a major disruption in the future,” he said.
He cited the soaring cost of jet fuel and the fact that thousands of tourists fly to South Africa via the Middle East on airlines such as Emirates, Qatar Airways and Etihad Airways, which are among the hardest hit by the disruptions — including to global oil supply — triggered by the US and Israel waging war against Iran in late February.
“If the war continues you’re not going to have as many airlines and as many seats coming into our destination and that will be a problem,” Tshivhengwa said.
“For now what we have seen is that there’s a redirection in terms of how people get here, redirecting through Europe…. But those seats may not be enough at the moment to carry the capacity that was carried through Qatar, Emirates and Etihad,” he said.
Outlining the 2026 outlook for the local industry in February, a few weeks before the conflict erupted, David Frost, CEO of the Southern Africa Tourism Services Association, noted that inbound tourism is anchored by OR Tambo International Airport, Cape Town International Airport and King Shaka International Airport.
Together, the three hubs support a growing base of long-haul connectivity, including about 5,000 direct seats on carriers such as Emirates, Qatar and Etihad.
The conflict has introduced uncertainty into the global tourism outlook due to its effect on aviation and traveller sentiment. While South Africa’s core demand drivers remain intact there is potential pressure on airlift, travel costs and booking patterns linked to disruptions in the Middle East, tourism minister Patricia de Lille said.
“The longer-term impact will largely depend on the duration and escalation of the conflict. Key areas of concern include sustained pressure on global aviation networks, increased travel costs and broader economic uncertainty, all of which can dampen general tourism growth,” De Lille said in a written response to questions from Business Day.
“Our focus remains on maintaining South Africa’s competitiveness, strengthening partnerships and ensuring we can respond effectively to evolving global conditions.”
Before the war, the local tourism industry had managed to claw its way out of the slump triggered by the Covid-19 pandemic. In January, De Lille said the sector had entered a phase of expansion, with a record 10.485-million international visitors in 2025, surpassing the previous peak of 2018.
The longer-term impact will largely depend on the duration and escalation of the conflict. Key areas of concern include sustained pressure on global aviation networks, increased travel costs and broader economic uncertainty, all of which can dampen general tourism growth.
— Patricia de Lille, tourism minister
A Statistics South Africa report last week showed the number of foreign travellers into the country increased 8.4% to just more than 1.2-million in March versus a year ago.
Tourists from Southern Africa accounted for 73.5% while those from outside the continent made up 24.5%. The bulk of the overseas tourists were from Europe, followed by North America, Asia, Australasia, Central and South America, while just 0.5% were from the Middle East.
South Africa has an opportunity to benefit from shifts in global travel and events demand, particularly if travellers and organisers seek alternative locations perceived as stable and attractive, De Lille said.
She pointed out that the department of home affairs in March launched reforms to streamline and accelerate high-volume group visa applications for international visitors attending events.
“While it is still early to quantify the scale of this shift, we are actively working with industry partners to ensure that South Africa is well-positioned to respond to any increased interest, particularly by highlighting our value proposition and readiness to host,” De Lille said.
But while South Africa has bagged at least one conference — in Cape Town — that had been initially planned for Dubai, the country must invest more into successfully bidding to be a host nation for global events, Tshivhengwa said.
“A strong strategy that has to do with business tourism is very important. Having the funds to bid, which we call the subvention fund, is very important,” he said.
“We do have some level of a strategy, but we need to improve to be more robust in the work that we do. The subvention fund is very important [but] we never have enough money to bid.”
While the present disruptions to international travel are not as severe as during the pandemic, Tshivhengwa is worried about the damage from a prolonged war.
“The big thing is the fuel cost. That’s a big worry for all of us because it makes the destination expensive. Even domestically, when food is more expensive and basic things are more expensive, people tend to cut leisure travel. They look at it as not a necessity. So the fuel price keeps us awake at night, but so does the whole situation in the Middle East.
“We do want those airlines that were carrying as many people as possible to South Africa to return,” he said.
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