The severe flooding that has affected citrus-producing areas in the Western Cape and parts of the Eastern Cape has dealt a blow to the sector’s prospects after a stellar 2025 season which saw its exports surpass those of global industry giant Spain.
Preliminary assessments suggest the most severely affected areas are in the Kouga municipality in the Eastern Cape, particularly the Gamtoos Valley around Patensie, Citrus Growers’ Association (CGA) CEO Boitshoko Ntshabele said.
“Early indications suggest that orchards have been flooded, with some trees uprooted, and initial estimates indicate that about 10%–12% of the local crop may be affected,” he said.
“In the Western Cape, regions including Citrusdal and the Boland have also experienced heavy rainfall. In Citrusdal, the rainfall is reported to be significantly higher than in previous flood events. However, the extent of damage appears to be less severe, and key infrastructure, including main access routes, has largely remained operational.”
He said this had helped ensure that the season, while delayed here by about a week, can still recover.
The disruption from the floods will be felt most acutely in the soft citrus category, as early mandarin harvesting was ramping up when the rain arrived.
“These developments come at a challenging time for growers, who are already facing softer demand in the key export market of the Middle East, as well as rising input and logistics costs. What had been shaping up as a strong season now requires high levels of adaptability and responsiveness,” Ntshabele said.
The setback comes as the South African industry — which supports at least 140,000 jobs on farm and packhouse level alone — was celebrating the feat of overtaking Spain as the world’s largest citrus exporter by volume in 2025, with 204-million 15kg cartons sold to international markets.
South Africa has long been the second-largest exporter after Spain and the largest in the southern hemisphere.
The CGA cited a combination of farmers’ efforts, ideal growing conditions, support from the government in securing markets and state logistics company Transnet’s improved freight system for last year’s achievement.
“Improved logistics at the ports did play a role. We are grateful for changes implemented by Transnet, specifically at the Port of Durban — where by far the most of our citrus is shipped from,” Ntshabele said in response to questions from Business Day.
High-quality fruit
Though South Africa is not the world’s largest citrus producer, the CGA says its strong export numbers reflect its high fruit quality, export-orientated model, strong compliance with international plant health and sustainability standards, as well as long-standing integration into global supply chains.
Last month, the industry was expecting exports to grow by up to 5% this year, while citing risks from the Middle East, which have disrupted the flow of commodities, including oil, sending fuel and fertiliser costs soaring.
The flooding in the Eastern Cape and Western Cape now poses another threat to the outlook for 2026.
“The impact of the situation in the Middle East on fuel costs and shipping routes is a concern which is placing significant pressure on grower margins. Growers also face unpredictable price and market dynamics and rising input costs, as well as market access issues such as high tariffs and unscientific plant health measures,” Ntshabele said.
Asked by Business Day whether the exports to South Africa’s other markets such as the EU, the UK and the US could offset the risk of softer demand from the Middle East, he responded: “The demand is difficult to predict, but we currently expect to export volumes in line with last year’s performance to the EU, the UK and the US.”
He said it was not yet clear at this stage whether the South African citrus industry’s 2026 export performance would definitely fall short of the 2025 level.
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