CHRIS THURMAN | It may be skipping a beat globally, but the secondary market in SA is a picture of health

By Chris Thurman

While billionaire doomsday preppers are building luxury bunkers in New Zealand, less apocalyptically minded members of the 1% are buying wine farms and private game reserves in South Africa. It’s nice to know that rich people want to spend their money here, though this is cold comfort for some residents of Johannesburg who are heading into a third week without water.

Precarity is a global phenomenon, not least because of the whims of the dangerous cabal who currently run the US (or, perhaps more accurately, their nefarious handlers in other pockets of geopolitical power). South Africa is hardly a safe haven, but most days it feels better to be here than elsewhere — if you’re comfortably upper-middle class.

It’s not that our country is buffered from international forces; on the contrary, we are highly exposed to the impacts of climate change, economic inequality, the rise of right-wing populism, policy uncertainty, perennial conflict zones, tech disruption and more. But through the strange alchemy of currency fluctuation, diplomatic contortions, resources, resourcefulness, historical ties and innovation — yes, in both the private and the public sectors — things are never quite as bad as they ought to be.

I admit that this is not the kind of lukewarm affirmation President Cyril Ramaphosa’s speechwriters may have reached for when preparing his state of the nation address. But they are welcome to use it next year in a pinch.

Or perhaps they could turn to the South African art market as a case study in how the local one partially bucks global downward trends. After a post-Covid bump, the international art market was down 12% year on year in 2024 and recovered only marginally in 2025. This appears to have had some effect on the primary market in South Africa, with galleries like Stevenson and Goodman closing exhibition spaces and reducing their artist lists.

In the secondary market, however, the picture looks a little different. At an industry briefing hosted last week by auctioneers Strauss & Co, chairman Frank Kilbourn described the global market as a “wait and see” environment, noting that even the wider African art market, which has been booming in recent years, is more pressured than it has been. By contrast, Strauss’ sales numbers from 2025 point to a positive trajectory in South Africa. Kilbourn linked this to a generally improved investment horizon, flagging the relative stability of the government of national unity and the appeal of the country’s “inherent qualities” to prospective investors.

One in five of the 7,000 lots sold by Strauss last year went to international buyers, though this figure probably doesn’t do justice to their influence, which is felt more when high-value items are on auction (there were 14 artworks that went for more than R5m). A particularly encouraging statistic is that almost a third of their buyers were first-time clients. Another interesting perspective on the local secondary market was provided by Alican Arcasoy, co-CEO of data and analytics company Artdai, who observed that even the work of an international arts superstar like William Kentridge is still sold mostly within the South African market.

Strauss senior art specialist Alastair Meredith highlighted some other factors giving our secondary market greater prominence: the “repatriation” of museum-grade works by renowned South African artists, a resurgence of interest in black modernists, and the effect of major international exhibitions (last year an Irma Stern auction record was achieved due to her work being exhibited in Berlin, and Meredith expects something similar will occur with Dumile Feni in 2026).

Meredith will be further unpacking the topic of “The South African secondary market vs the world” as part of the talks programme at the Investec Cape Town Art Fair, taking place on February 20-22. As the art world descends from near and far, there will be wheeling, dealing, negotiating, hustling and bustling aplenty. Events will extend beyond the precinct of the Cape Town International Convention Centre, and beyond the bounds of the fair itself (Strauss is kick-starting things with no fewer than four exhibition walkabouts and openings at its Woodstock headquarters this weekend).

Through it all, however, fair director Laura Vincenti is hoping to instil a sense of considered engagement rather than sound and fury. The theme for 2026 is, aptly, “Listen”.