Abu Dhabi — Lando Norris (McLaren), Max Verstappen (Red Bull) and Oscar Piastri (McLaren) are the three title contenders going into Sunday’s Abu Dhabi season-ender at Yas Marina.
It will be the first time the final race has had more than two drivers still in the frame since a four-way battle in 2010 and could end a reign that started for Verstappen at the same circuit in 2021.
Since the first world championship season in 1950, the title has gone down to the wire on 31 occasions and been won by the driver leading into the last race all but nine times.
Red Bull’s Sebastian Vettel, overturning a 15-point deficit to Ferrari’s Fernando Alonso from third place overall in 2010, was the last driver to come from behind and seize the title in the final round.
Kimi Raikkonen, with Ferrari in 2007, was the only other driver to do it this century.
The following looks at the possible permutations:
Norris (408 points) is champion if he finishes:
- On the podium.
- Fourth or fifth and Verstappen does not win.
- Sixth or seventh, and neither Verstappen nor Piastri wins.
- Eighth and Verstappen is not in the top two and Piastri does not win.
- Ninth and Verstappen is not on the podium and Piastri does not win.
- 10th or lower and Verstappen is not on the podium and Piastri is no higher than third.
Verstappen (396) is champion if:
- He wins and Norris is not on the podium.
- He finishes second and Norris is no higher than eighth and Piastri does not win.
- He finishes third and Norris is ninth or lower and Piastri does not win.
Piastri (392) is champion if:
- He wins and Norris is not in the top five.
- He finishes second and Norris is 10th or lower and Verstappen is not on the podium.
In the unlikely event that Norris and Verstappen end up tied on points, the number of wins will decide the title on an initial countback.
Since they are level on seven wins, and a tie would only be possible if neither of them won, the countback would go down to second places over the 24-race season. In that scenario Norris would win.
Verstappen and Piastri cannot end up as the top two tied on points, given Norris’s advantage.
