“Driving through disruption” was the theme of the 2026 state of the motor industry (Somi) briefing hosted by Toyota SA Motors (TSAM) on Thursday. It was the second time the brand’s conference coincided in date with the president’s state of the nation address.
Whether by design or chance, some may opine that as the country’s new vehicle sales market leader for the past 46 consecutive years, the Japanese firm’s big annual event is a matter of national importance. While Toyota’s president and CEO Andrew Kirby echoed concerns voiced by industry counterparts, his broader outlook included some positivity, predicting SA could end the year with a total new vehicle sales tally of 630,000 units.
He expressed confidence that in time the market would surpass 700,000 units. The last time this figure was exceeded was in 2006.
“We should be a lot bigger than we currently are, though we are moving in the right direction,” he said.
In 2025 the market recorded 596,818 units, a return to pre-pandemic levels of sales activity, marking a 15.7% increase over 2024.
Looking back at notes from the last Somi, his prediction was 535,000 units, but he remained hopeful for entry into the 600,000 mark. Though the benefit of lower interest rates was cited as a driver of sales in 2025, Kirby said the increase needed to be seen in perspective.
“In the sub-B-, C- and D-segments, which is where the volume lies in the passenger car market, it was the entry-level models [sales] that grew faster than all the others, creating an artificial growth in volume.”
Toyota ended 2025 with its highest sales volume since 2007, recording 148,124 units. Even observers with a cursory interest in the local automotive landscape will know legacy brands, including Toyota, are facing an onslaught from cheaper Chinese imports. Kirby spoke about welcoming competition, but said Toyota and the manufacturing industry as a collective must adapt and find smarter ways to grow business.
Diversification of export markets is one of the areas needing strong focus. In 2025, 81% of locally produced cars were exported to the UK and Europe.
“We used to export 19% into Africa. Now it is 8% with grey and used imports into Africa making it tough.”
The business leader said changing emissions standards in European and British regions placed into question their future as export destinations. Slow adoption of new energy vehicle (NEV) policy that would support competitive local manufacturing of electric and hybrid models could spell difficulty in sustaining export volumes.
“If we say we cannot afford to transition, we are effectively giving up on exports,” he cautioned. Kirby said a lack of intentional industrial policy has put the country on a backfoot, resulting in premature deindustrialisation.
From a plant perspective, he observed that like other manufacturers, Toyota’s Prospecton facility bore the pressures of high labour costs, significant increases in electricity prices, logistics and rail infrastructure snags and water security woes. A dam had to be built at the KwaZulu-Natal facility to safeguard against shortages. He said reliable infrastructure was needed to attract investment and with production allocation moving towards Asia, SA needed to benchmark against the region’s cost competitiveness.
“We used to transport cars daily from KwaZulu-Natal to Johannesburg. Now we have one train a week and it takes four days.
“We have also seen the migration of our supplier base. We need to find a way to bring back the steel and tyre industries to strengthen our competitive manufacturing capabilities.”
Toyota’s global policy of a multi-pathway approach was lauded as the right move by Kirby, effectively making the company technology agnostic — continuing to provide an assortment of power sources from internal combustion engines to self-charging hybrids, plug-in hybrids, all-electric vehicles and in some markets, hydrogen derivatives.
“Being the number 1 manufacturer globally, more than 40% of our sales are hybrid. In 2025 just under 70 NEV models were introduced locally and Toyota maintained an NEV market share of 58% including Lexus models.”
Talking solutions, Kirby said revisions to the Automotive Production and Development Programme (APDP) policy needs to champion complete-knocked down (CKD) competitiveness and NEV inclusion. He called for acceleration of the African Continental Free Trade Area agenda, to help protect and diversify exports.
Leon Theron, senior vice president of sales and marketing at TSAM, took a bullish approach towards the emerging disruptors of the market.
“We are not scared of our competitors, we welcome them,” he said.
According to Theron, there were three approaches that kept the company on a steady footing amid rising competition and industry changes. The first was the alliance with Suzuki, which sees the importation of rebadged products from India, giving Toyota a wider spread of affordable entries.
Second was protecting values. “We don’t play price wars, we don’t drop our prices. That’s the wrong strategy.”
Third was the multi-pathway approach of providing the market with different powertrain options.
“Toyota is the only manufacturer to compete in every segment,” Theron said, with the namesake brand supported by luxury division Lexus and trucking portfoli Hino.
Globally, the company has seen some additions to its organogram. The core Toyota brand will remain provider of “trusted, inclusive mobility at global scale” while Lexus strives to “leading luxury innovation and future standards” and the GR performance division’s aim is to keep the passion alive with motorsport to “build better cars and better people”.
Buyers can also look forward to the Century sub-brand, poised to “define the pinnacle of Japanese luxury without compromise or volume pressure”.
The Daihatsu marque, which Toyota owns a stake in, will also form part of the mix to “deliver simple affordable mobility where it matters most”, and with this Theron hinted to the possibility of its return to SA.
NEW MODELS
As has been the case with former Somi editions, the media were given a preview of new models on the horizon. Enthusiasts will be thrilled that a limited number of the GR GT flagship performance car will be coming to our shores. This year, Toyota will introduce its first series production battery electric vehicle (BEV), the BZ4X, while the more premium Lexus version, the RZ, launches later this month. The new RAV4 will be sold in hybrid, plug-in hybrid and regular internal combustion engine (ICE) derivatives and the Land Cruiser 300 will also gain a hybrid version.
The Corolla Cross, which sold a record 22,000 units in South Africa last year, is set to receive a redesigned iteration of the GR Sport version. The full-cream GR Corolla hatchback has been revised, with styling enhancements and the option of an eight-speed automatic. The most compelling of the vehicles on display, judging from the number of smartphones pulled out, was the Land Cruiser FJ.
Call it the baby Land Cruiser if you want, or a potential slayer of the Suzuki Jimny, the ladder-frame model oozes charm with its tough, retro-inspired looks.
Power will come from a 2.7l petrol motor — no diesel on the cards — and Toyota said it will appeal to an “aspirational” type of buyer for whom a Land Cruiser Prado or 300 is beyond grasp.
By now you may have realised there was no mention of the latest generation Hilux, which was revealed last year, with a range that comprised a BEV version.
At the start of Kirby’s address, he said this is an important year for Toyota, with more news to come in the second half, most likely when we will hear more about the company’s plans for the famed bakkie. We understand the significance of announcements on the horizon might even warrant a Somi 2.0 in 2026.
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