South African motorists could be in for a major fuel price shock in April, with record-breaking increases of up to R6/l if oil price trends continue for the remainder of March.
In the past week, Brent crude has spiked amid tensions around the Strait of Hormuz, the passage through which roughly 20% of global oil supply moves. The price of crude oil briefly surged to nearly $120 a barrel as the strait, controlled by Iran’s Islamic Revolutionary Guard, has been effectively closed after US-Israel strikes on Iran. At the time of writing Brent was around $86.
The rand weakened to R16.87/$ on March 9 but strengthened to about R16.20 on March 10.
According to the Central Energy Fund (CEF), at the present oil price and exchange rate, the retail price of 95 unleaded petrol would increase by R3.34/l and 93 Unleaded by R3.12/l, while the wholesale prices of diesel would be hiked R5.66/l for 0.05% sulphur and R5.78/l for 0.005% sulphur. This excludes the 21c increase in fuel taxes announced by finance minister Enoch Godongwana at his 2026 budget speech, comprising a 9c increase in the general fuel levy, a 5c higher carbon levy and an additional 7c Road Accident Fund levy from April 1.
Taken together, the increases could push the price of 0.005% diesel up by nearly R6/l and drive fuel prices across the board to record levels. South Africa’s highest petrol price was recorded in July 2022, when inland 95 unleaded reached R26.74/l after the Russian invasion of Ukraine pushed oil prices sharply higher.
In March, diesel rose by 62c-65c and petrol by 20c, raising the inland price of 93 unleaded to R20.19 and 95 unleaded to R20.30, while diesel wholesales for R18.53 (0.05%) and R18.60 (0.005%).
The fuel price predictions are based on the CEF’s early-month data and the geopolitical situation can change quickly. Depending on developments in the Middle East, the proposed increases could shift by the time the next fuel price adjustment takes effect in April
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