Motorists are on course to face the steepest fuel price hikes yet implemented in a single month in April as surging global oil prices, a weaker rand and looming tax increases drive costs to budget-breaking highs.
Escalating tensions in the Middle East, along with pressure on key shipping routes such as the Strait of Hormuz, have pushed crude prices upward by more than 40% since the bombing of Iran by Israel and the US started on February 28.
Brent crude was trading just below $103 a barrel at the time of writing, while South Africa’s reliance on imported fuel leaves it particularly exposed to these global shocks. At the same time, a softer local currency — at about R16.66 to the dollar — is making fuel imports more expensive.
Adding to the pressure, finance minister Enoch Godongwana recently announced a 21c/l increase in the general fuel levy during his February 2026 budget speech. This will take effect in April as part of the next fuel price adjustment.
According to the latest daily data from the Central Energy Fund (CEF), the price of 93-octane petrol is currently set to climb by around R4.27/l, while 95-octane petrol could increase by about R4.74/l. Diesel users may be hit even harder, with the wholesale price of 50ppm diesel projected to jump by R7.83/l and 500ppm diesel by about R7.73/l.
If these projections hold, motorists will pay — including the higher fuel levy — about R24.67/l for 93-octane petrol and R25.25/l for 95-octane inland (R24.42/l at the coast). The wholesale price of 50ppm diesel could reach R26.64/l inland (R25.88/l at the coast), while 500ppm diesel may rise to about R26.47/l (R25.64/l coastal).
Higher fuel prices are expected to ripple through the broader economy. Diesel underpins much of South Africa’s freight and agricultural transport, while both petrol and diesel are widely used by taxis, buses and delivery fleets.
Sharp increases at the pumps typically translate into higher public transport fares and rising food prices, as the cost of moving goods from farms and factories to retailers climbs.
These concerning knock-on effects have prompted industry bodies to question how South Africa can reduce its exposure to volatile international oil prices. The Road Freight Association, in particular, has suggested exploring greater use of locally produced synthetic fuels, such as ethanol derived from KwaZulu-Natal’s sugar cane industry. This, it argues, could support job creation while improving energy security.
The department of mineral and petroleum resources (DMPR) reassured the public that there is no immediate risk of fuel shortages, but South Africa has strategic fuel reserves estimated at just two weeks of supply — against a global benchmark of 90 days.
South Africa refines less than 35% of its own fuel, down from about 80% previously, with the remainder imported as finished product. The shutdown of Durban’s Sapref refinery in 2022 significantly contributed to the reliance on imports, and the only remaining producers are Natref in Sasolburg, Astron Energy in Cape Town and Sasol’s Secunda coal-to-liquids plant. These facilities rely on crude oil imports sourced primarily from West Africa and increasingly from other countries across the African continent, said the DMPR.
Speaking at the Southern Africa Oil and Gas Conference in Cape Town on Monday, minister of mineral and petroleum resources Gwede Mantashe said the long-term solution lay in domestic fuel production, but that environmental groups had persistently blocked exploitation of the country’s own petroleum resources, including major offshore gas discoveries in the Outeniqua Basin and the Orange Basin.
Industry stakeholders have also called for expanded electric vehicle infrastructure and incentives, as well as consideration of a temporary freeze on the general fuel levy to help cushion consumers. At the start of the Ukraine war in 2022, when oil prices similarly surged, the department of mineral resources and energy (DMRE) and National Treasury introduced a temporary R1.50 reduction in the general fuel levy to soften the impact. Some in the sector have questioned why a similar intervention is not being reconsidered given the current conditions.
Despite the sharp increases indicated, the outlook could shift before month-end as oil prices and the rand-dollar exchange rate continue to fluctuate.
Final adjustments will be confirmed by the DMRE at the end of March, with the official April fuel prices set to take effect on April 1.
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