Even as policymakers celebrate a lower inflation target, looming rate cuts and a sovereign credit rating upgrade, the latest survey by the SA Chamber of Commerce and Industry (Sacci) shows local businesses remain under pressure and wary of their prospects.
Nearly half of all respondents in an October survey were bracing for a decline in trade conditions over the next six months, while only 61% expected things to improve — down from nearly 70% in May.
Additionally, trade conditions remained in negative territory in October, as did the average of all Sacci’s composite trade indices for the 10 months to end-October.
“Several global and domestic economic developments continue to weigh negatively on overall trade conditions in SA,” said Sacci, with more than half (54%) of respondents reportedly experiencing worse trade conditions in October 2025 than they did in October 2024.
“The negative conditions continue and are evident from the Sacci Trade Conditions Surveys for some time now.”
Sacci attributed the dip in expectations to lower forecast sales volumes, fewer new orders, declining supplier deliveries and lower stock levels in the next six months, much of which could be chalked up to trade wars and US tariffs.
“The global trade changes and the direct and multiplying effect it has on local trade have not yet completely impacted local businesses, but uncertainty did affect expectations,” said Sacci.
At home, the benefit of lower fuel prices and subdued consumer and producer inflation in October were offset by rising municipal tariffs and property tax, which continue to push up inflation expectations and threaten to stave off future rate cuts.
“The lowering of the inflation target to about 3% will necessitate strict discipline on the application of price and tariff increases in the private and public sectors,” said Sacci.
Trade sentiment in October was further dragged by a handful of other domestic headwinds, including a slowdown in building plans passed and rising electricity tariffs, as well as an ongoing decline in overall exports and imports over the medium term.
Added to this is SA’s sluggish economic growth, an issue which remains front and centre of the country’s fiscal policy debate.
In its medium-term budget policy statement (MTBPS) last week, the Treasury revised its growth forecast for 2025 down to 1.2%, from 1.4% projected in the May budget. It even warned US tariffs imposed on SA exports could shave 0.4 percentage points off GDP growth next year.
“The effect of the local subdued real economic performance and uncertain global business and investor sentiment was evident,” said Sacci.
The organisation warned respondents were preparing to adjust their workforces in the coming six months, with negative and varying trade conditions resulting in fewer hires in October than in previous months.
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