A study commissioned by the Rockefeller Foundation, one of the world’s largest philanthropic entities, says South Africa is failing to sell the benefits of pursuing nuclear energy as renewables dominate policy thanks to strong lobbying by well-funded groups.
South Africa has Africa’s only operating nuclear power plant, Koeberg, which was commissioned in 1984. Subsequent upgrades have extended the plant’s lifespan to 2045.
The latest version of South Africa’s integrated resource plan includes 5,200MW of new nuclear capacity as the country rebuilds its nuclear supply chain.
The country is reopening fuel development laboratories, reviving the pebble bed modular reactor programme, and building a pipeline of nuclear scientists in partnership with universities.
“By 2050, South Africa reaches 12GW-22GW of nuclear capacity under the pessimistic and optimistic pathways, supplying 17%-31% of total generation. This leads to system cost reductions of 5%–15% relative to a renewable-only pathway,” the Rockefeller Foundation study states.
“With strong wind resources and an existing nuclear foundation, South Africa is well positioned to develop a diversified and reliable generation mix under emissions-limited scenarios.”
‘Africa risk premium’
However, the report said the state cannot independently fund a new nuclear programme and that the “Africa risk premium” raises borrowing costs.
The report suggests that green bonds, public-private partnerships, and tokenisation of mineral reserves could support financing, while major mining firms could be power purchase agreement offtakers.
Still, the report notes that the country’s nuclear ambitions are countered by small, well-funded opposition groups, and the industry lacks co-ordinated professional advocacy. Moreover, experienced engineers are at risk of being lost due to project delays.
Koeberg benchmark
On the technical side, the report says Koeberg’s two reactors remain profitable and serve as a national benchmark; the country has significant expertise in pebble-bed technology; and the established uranium mining base supports self-sufficiency.
The study further notes that the transmission grid is well-positioned for a coal-to-nuclear transition.
The eco-justice organisations — which halted a R1-trillion nuclear deal with Russia in 2017 on constitutional grounds — are stepping up a campaign to block all nuclear energy in the country.
Commissioned by The Rockefeller Foundation and conducted by Bayesian Energy and Radiant Energy, the study combines detailed systems modelling with structured qualitative research and expert interviews to assess the potential for nuclear deployment across Brazil, Ghana, India, Indonesia, Nigeria, the Philippines, Rwanda and South Africa.
New wave of nuclear reactors
It modelled eight countries towards a pathway to zero-carbon power by 2050. The study said small modular reactors offer potential advantages for emerging economies because their lower upfront capital costs can make them more affordable and easier to finance.
Ashvin Dayal, senior vice-president for power at the Rockefeller Foundation, said the organisation sees increasing signs of the potential for nuclear energy to enable universal energy abundance.
“Investment in renewables is booming, but the surge in demand for electricity as a result of economic growth in emerging markets and massive data centre deployments globally means we must explore a more diversified mix of energy technologies, including non-emitting, dispatchable power generation,” Dayal said.
“Over the next 10–15 years, a new wave of nuclear reactors —alongside existing assets — may be capable of delivering on this need for more energy diversity in regions where other clean baseload technologies such as geothermal or hydro are not physically possible.”
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