Chinese car imports are driving South Africa’s largest bilateral trade deficit, with the country running a R136.6bn gap with China in the first nine months of last year.
This comes as nearly 375,000 vehicles flooded the local market and Chinese brands captured almost half of all showroom sales, placing an industry that supports 460,000 jobs under increasing strain.
The trade-gap data from the Industrial Development Corporation (IDC) shows South Africa exported merchandise to the value of R164bn to China between January and September, which was overwhelmed by R304bn in imports — a R136.6bn deficit.
The state-owned IDC said exports to China accounted for 3.3% of South Africa’s GDP in 2024, supporting 330,000 jobs.
The latest car sales data from the National Association of Automobile Manufacturers of South Africa shows car imports surged 30% from January to November 2025 compared with the prior year, with 374,594 cars having made their way to the country’s shores last year — not far off the 408,000 units exported, mainly to Europe.
Chinese and Indian cars have become a big factor in the domestic market, with some of the country’s biggest showrooms reporting that Chinese brands now account for nearly half of sales, as vehicle ownership pivots from aspirational to pragmatic, with cash-strapped consumers looking for value rather than prestige.
Chinese brands such as Haval, Jetour, Omoda, Chery and BAIC have become a regular sight on South African roads.
At the manufacturer level, the unrestricted proliferation of Chinese and Indian vehicle imports has placed extreme pressure on local producers, placing jobs at risk, with calls growing for the government to compel China to produce cars here.
South Africa’s car manufacturing industry accounts for about 22.6% of the country’s manufacturing output and represents about 460,000 highly skilled, direct jobs in its formal sector supply chain.
Lydia Zhang, executive vice-president for client coverage at corporate and investment banking at Standard Bank, said Chinese brands have reached a scale at which local assembly could soon make economic sense.
To this end, Zhang said several leading Chinese brands have launched feasibility studies to assess the potential for establishing assembly plants in South Africa.
Read: SA’s trade deficit with Brics partners widens
“While we would expect Chinese OEMs [original equipment manufacturers] to begin with semi-knocked-down [SKD] or limited-scale assembly, it is important that this evolves into full-scale CKD [completely knocked down] production within a defined timeframe,” Zhang said.
“We see this progression as critical for job creation and meaningful local industry participation, supported by South Africa’s automotive supplier base.
“The next few years could mark a turning point for South Africa’s automotive sector. If more Chinese OEMs commit to local manufacturing, it would not only reshape the competitive landscape but also reinvigorate an industry facing structural challenges.”
The IDC data also shows that Europe continues to be an indispensable trade partner for South Africa, with the market’s love for South African-produced cars unabating.
Europe remains strong market
South Africa’s car exports to the EU surged R16.7bn in the nine months under review, accounting for about 37.4% of the EU export basket.
South Africa had a trade deficit of R29.9bn with the EU in the period, exporting goods worth R302.9bn while importing merchandise to the tune of R332bn.
Trade with the EU bloc contributes about 5% to the country’s GDP, supporting nearly 600,000 jobs.
South Africa has duty-free trade access to Europe, which benefits the country through increased exports, improved economic growth and enhanced regional co-operation.
The IDC data shows platinum group metals were South Africa’s largest exports to the US, while motor vehicle exports to the world’s largest economy plunged R13bn.
Trade with the rest of Africa is also key for South Africa, the continent’s most industrialised economy.
The total impact of South Africa’s exports to the rest of Africa in jobs came in at nearly 1-million, with the country enjoying a significant trade surplus with the continent.
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