John Steenhuisen is expected to announce his withdrawal from the DA’s leadership race on Wednesday, a move that is likely to ignite a fierce contest to replace him.
The party, the third largest in parliament, is expected to hold an elective conference in April and Steenhuisen’s re-election was generally regarded a given by some party insiders and analysts.
But in a dramatic twist to the leadership race, he is expected to pull out at a press briefing called by the party on Wednesday.
He won re-election as DA boss in April 2023, thrashing former Joburg mayor Mpho Phalatse by 84% to 16%.
Several party insiders have told Business Day that the move is the culmination of mounting tensions that have progressively weakened Steenhuisen’s authority in the party.
Steenhuisen has faced sustained pressure after allegations raised by former minister of forestry, fisheries & environmental affairs Dion George regarding party spending. While the claims were not formally adjudicated, insiders said they deepened mistrust within senior ranks and sharpened existing factional divisions.
The friction between the two DA senior leaders culminated in George’s axing as minister by President Cyril Ramaphosa and his eventual resignation from the party.
At government level, the tensions were significantly worsened by dissatisfaction over Steenhuisen’s handling of the recent foot-and-mouth disease (FMD) outbreak. Reporting by the Sunday Times indicated that frustration was particularly acute among Afrikaner constituencies and agricultural donors, with senior figures describing the episode as the “final straw” for critics already uneasy about Steenhuisen’s leadership style.
Speaking to Business Day, agricultural economist Wandile Sihlobo said that while farmer anger over the outbreak was understandable, vaccine procurement and disease monitoring must remain under strict state control to protect South Africa’s export markets. Critics in the DA, however, argue that the department of agriculture under Steenhuisen failed to deliver a sufficiently clear and co-ordinated response, undermining confidence among farming communities and donor networks sensitive to biosecurity risks.
Against this backdrop, the Sunday Times reported that a series of meetings among senior DA leaders were convened to broker a “dignified” exit. The party has confirmed that Steenhuisen will address the media in Durban, his home province, on matters of “national importance and public interest”. DA insiders said the timing and location are intended to allow Steenhuisen to shape the public narrative of his departure, even as he is being eased out internally, framing his exit as voluntary and statesmanlike rather than the product of internal pressure.
Attention has now shifted to succession. Cape Town mayor Geordin Hill-Lewis is widely regarded as the frontrunner, though DA insiders said he is “reluctant” as he wants to remain Cape Town mayor.
Speaking to the Financial Mail in January, Hill-Lewis argued that the GNU needs to “turbocharge” reforms, warning that progress on unemployment, poverty and fiscal strain is moving too slowly.
While Hill-Lewis previously said he would not contest the leadership while Steenhuisen remained in the race, insiders said the dynamics have shifted.
His popularity and governing record make him a strong contender, but there is growing caution about his reluctance to leave the mayoralty prematurely. Hill-Lewis governs Cape Town with a stable majority and would be trading a secure executive position for a role within a GNU whose long-term stability and electoral future beyond the next cycle remain uncertain.
That uncertainty has reopened discussion about alternative candidates. Names circulating within party structures include basic education minister Siviwe Gwarube, former Tshwane mayor Cilliers Brink and Gauteng provincial leader Solly Msimanga. While none have formally declared, insiders said Hill-Lewis’s hesitation could prevent an uncontested succession and force a broader leadership contest.
Former DA leader Tony Leon said Steenhuisen’s departure would be politically significant, arguing that the manner in which a leader exits often reveals the true nature of a transition. “In its 25 years, the DA has had four leaders,” he said. “Two, Helen Zille and myself, left in uncontroversial circumstances and at a time of our choosing; one did not, Mmusi Maimane.
“If John Steenhuisen announces that he is stepping aside, how he does so and the manner of his departure will indicate how uncontroversial that exit really is.” When asked who would be best suited to lead the DA, Leon said: “Geordin Hill-Lewis, though I’m not trying to influence [the] outcome.”
Political analyst Wayne Sussman described Steenhuisen’s expected withdrawal as a “dramatic development”, noting that he had been widely viewed as the presumptive frontrunner.
Sussman said donor dynamics played a significant role and that the leadership contest, unfolding ahead of the 2026 local government elections, would be critical in shaping the DA’s positioning within coalition politics and the GNU.
The leadership crisis comes as the DA continues to struggle to break through its long-standing national support ceiling. The party secured 22.2% of the vote in 2014, dropped to 20.8% in 2019 and rose only marginally to about 21.8% in the 2024 general election, despite the ANC’s sharp electoral decline. The figures underline a persistent inability to convert political volatility into sustained growth.
According to political analyst Jonathan Moakes, Steenhuisen’s expected withdrawal is likely to narrow rather than widen the contest, with Hill-Lewis emerging as the most probable successor. Moakes argues that the DA will prioritise avoiding a divisive leadership battle ahead of its federal congress and the 2026 local government elections.
He said Steenhuisen is positioned to exit on more controlled terms than Maimane, with his status as a GNU minister making it likely he will retain his cabinet role beyond April — an outcome Moakes said would not occur without the involvement of Zille. While a leadership change is unlikely to alter the DA’s short-term participation in the GNU, Moakes noted that the choice of successor will signal whether the party adopts a more oppositional posture or maintains its present governing stance ahead of the next electoral cycle.
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