Eskom says its reliance on diesel-fired emergency generation has dropped sharply as coal fleet performance improves, while noting that global supply chain disruptions remain a potential risk.
Group CEO Dan Marokane said diesel consumption has “reduced drastically” due to higher availability of coal-fired power stations and is expected to remain low during winter. He added Eskom aims to “sustain current low levels” to limit exposure to rising fuel costs.
Diesel — used to power open-cycle gas turbines during supply shortfalls — has historically been one of Eskom’s most expensive tools for stabilising the grid during periods of strain. Marokane said the current reduction is driven by improved generation performance rather than emergency interventions.
In its 2026 winter outlook statement released on Wednesday, Eskom said it spent about R6.4bn on diesel in the year to March, down about R26.9bn from 2023 levels, when heavy reliance on emergency generation was required to manage outages.
Marokane said the utility has secured sufficient diesel for the next two to three months at current consumption levels but cautioned that fuel availability remains subject to global conditions.
“We don’t know how long this tension is going to be sustained and whether it will dip into a point where supply routes are disrupted,” he said.
Eskom’s energy availability factor (EAF) rose to just more than 65% at end-March, up from less than 60% a year earlier. Unplanned outages declined, with breakdowns averaging less than 10,000MW compared with 12,000MW-13,000MW in the same period last year.
The improvement has increased available generation capacity and reduced reliance on diesel-fired peaking plants during periods of high demand or unexpected outages.
Marokane said Eskom has an average of about 3,000MW on cold reserve.
Based on these conditions, Eskom has lowered its base-case assumption for unplanned outages this winter to about 12,000MW, from 13,000MW previously. Even under more severe scenarios of up to 14,000MW, the utility said it does not expect load-shedding.
“Between 12,000 [MW] and 14,000 [MW] … we don’t see any load-shedding occurring because our supply capacity is very strong,” Marokane said.
The outlook also accounts for additional industrial demand, including from ferrochrome smelters, which Eskom says has already been incorporated into its planning scenarios.
Despite lower diesel use, Eskom remains exposed to global fuel market conditions.
Marokane said geopolitical pressures have driven diesel price volatility, though improved fleet performance is limiting exposure.
He said Eskom continues to monitor international fuel markets and logistics closely.
The utility has now gone more than 300 days without load-shedding, marking a notable improvement compared with previous years.
However, the sustainability of this position will depend on whether generation performance holds through winter demand peaks and ongoing maintenance cycles.
Eskom also provided an update on its efforts to eliminate load-shedding.
“To build on the current momentum of our phased national programme, we are working in close collaboration with the department of electricity & energy and relevant stakeholders to accelerate the elimination of load-reduction,” Eskom said.
“This programme has already yielded results, with the Northern Cape and Western Cape now fully removed from load-reduction schedules.
“Nationally, more than 340,000 customers who previously faced load reduction are no longer experiencing it, ensuring continuous supply during the winter period.”
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