South African consumers are spending again — but not in the way they used to, according to SpendTrend26, the fourth annual consumer spending report from Discovery Bank and Visa.
Recently released at a media briefing in Sandton, Johannesburg, the report combines analysis of 2.6-billion credit card transactions across 12-million cards between 2021 and 2025, with a national survey of higher-income South Africans earning more than R100,000 a year.
The data reveals household spending has finally edged ahead of inflation for the first time since 2022. The more profound shift is, however, behavioural: consumers are becoming more disciplined, more value-driven and decisively digital in how they pay, plan and protect their money.
These findings — watch the video below for an overview — paint a picture of a cautious recovery shaped less by confidence and more by control.
Spending recovers — carefully
Four interest-rate cuts by the South African Reserve Bank (Sarb) in 2025 brought the prime lending rate down from 11.25% to 10.25%, easing pressure on households.
As a result, average consumer spending grew 0.8 percentage points above inflation — a milestone not seen since 2022. But rather than unleashing pent-up demand, most consumers are exercising restraint in their expenditure.
Discovery Bank CEO Hylton Kallner says the shift in consumer behaviour is noteworthy. “Rather than using that [financial] relief for additional discretionary spend, households are using rewards, budgeting tools and value‑seeking strategies to stretch what they already have. This is discipline, not distress.”
Households are using rewards, budgeting tools and value‑seeking strategies to stretch what they already have
— Discovery Bank CEO Hylton Kallner
That discipline shows up across essential categories. Grocery shopping is increasingly moving online, bulk buying and private‑label brands are rising, and eating out is becoming less frequent as home cooking gains ground — particularly among millennials.
Travel rebounds, small treats endure
Despite tighter budgets, some categories are proving resilient. Travel spending rebounded strongly in 2025 across all income groups, driven by deals and rewards rather than indulgence.
Discovery Bank clients, supported by travel rewards, made 18% more travel transactions than the national average.
Smaller indulgences also remain protected. Coffee purchases, for instance, increased modestly in frequency but sharply in spend per purchase, reinforcing their role as an everyday ritual consumers are reluctant to sacrifice.
Eating out and takeaways remain popular “earned” treats, typically triggered by payday, discounts or milestone moments.
Digital payments become the default
The clearest signal of change is how South Africans pay. According to the survey, 94% of respondents now prefer card or digital payments over cash.
Virtual card ownership has risen to 85%, with active usage jumping from 45% in 2024 to 73% in 2025. Digital wallets now account for 30% of in‑store transactions nationally.
“Visa operates in over 200 markets worldwide, which gives us a unique perspective on how consumer behaviour is evolving,” says Lineshree Moodley, country head of Visa SA.
“What is striking when we look at SA in that global context is we are not behind the digital shift. In fact, on several dimensions, we are genuinely world‑class.”
Moodley says South Africans are choosing digital payments not out of necessity but trust.
“SpendTrend26 shows a clear step change in behavioural confidence. Consumers are increasingly choosing digital first when it is available, trusted and widely accepted because it works better for how they live, spend and manage risk,” she says.
Cash hasn’t disappeared entirely, however. It still plays a role in informal transport, tipping and settings where digital acceptance remains uneven.
AI reshapes shopping and protection
Artificial intelligence is rapidly becoming part of the consumer decision‑making toolkit.
Forty percent of surveyed South Africans now use AI tools weekly to help decide what to buy, where to buy it, or whether to buy at all. Among 18‑ to 30‑year‑olds, that figure rises to 50%.
Among those using AI, 42% say it helped them find a cheaper alternative, 35% switched brands or retailers, and 35% avoided a purchase altogether due to perceived risk.
Notably, 32% are now using AI to help identify potential fraud, such as checking whether a message or link looks suspicious.
Kallner says financial institutions are seeing tangible benefits from embedding AI into banking systems.
Discovery Bank’s AI‑driven TRUST Alert, which applies a real‑time risk score to every transaction, has cut confirmed fraud on flagged transactions by an estimated 85%.
While digital controls improve, the next threat vector is social engineering — a trend Visa is watching closely heading into 2026.
“Fraudsters are increasingly relying on urgency, trust and familiarity,” Moodley says. “Encouragingly, consumers are adapting quickly, showing stronger authentication preferences and a growing ability to spot red flags.”
Health spending reshapes household budgets
One of the most notable emerging trends is the impact of prescribed weight‑management medication, including GLP‑1 therapies.
Fourteen percent of surveyed households say someone is using these medications and the knock‑on effects are significant.
Among those households, 59% report spending more on healthier foods, 48% less on takeaways and restaurants, 45% less on alcohol, and 38% less on groceries overall.
“That is a meaningful spill‑over into adjacent categories,” Kallner says. “Food retailers, restaurants and alcohol brands should be watching this closely.”
Events drive spending spikes
For the first time, SpendTrend26 also analyses when South Africans spend.
The data shows discretionary spending is increasingly concentrated around predictable moments such as long weekends, celebrations, discount periods and major sporting events.
“These moments consistently lift daily spend by an average of 13.6%,” Moodley says. “Black Friday remains the most significant event in the spending calendar,” delivering a 57% uplift and evolving into a month‑long spending cycle, particularly for appliances.
Looking ahead to 2026
The report concludes that value‑seeking behaviour is unlikely to fade any time soon.
Global energy disruptions, trade pressures and geopolitical uncertainty are expected to keep food and fuel costs elevated.
Health‑conscious spending, AI‑assisted shopping and event‑led consumption — including the 2026 Fifa World Cup — are set to shape the next phase of consumer behaviour.
If SpendTrend26 is any guide, South Africa’s consumer recovery won’t be loud or flashy, but it may be more sustainable for it.
The SpendTrend26 survey reflects responses from credit card‑holding South Africans earning R100,000 or more per year. Download the full report.
This article was sponsored by Discovery Bank.
