Africa is undergoing one of the most significant demographic transformations in modern history. With its population projected to reach 2.5-billion by 2050 and a median age of about 19, it’s set to become the youngest and most populous region in the world.
Former MTN Group president and CEO Phuthuma Nhleko views this population boom as a double-edged sword: it’s either the continent’s greatest dividend or a growing socio-economic risk. The outcome, he says, will depend on the urgency and effectiveness of long-term planning.
In his new book The Invisible People: How a Quarter of Humanity Can Thrive in Africa by 2050, Nhleko examines Africa’s place in the global landscape and the strategic shifts required to transform its future.
He discusses these ideas with broadcast journalist Cathy Mohlahlana in the latest episode of MTN’s thought leadership vodcast series The ‘Yello Chair — watch it below.
One of the book’s central themes is “invisibility”.
Nhleko says Africa has been rendered “quite invisible” on the world stage.
In his view, global conversations, particularly in the US, rarely feature Africa in any substantive manner, unless it concerns combatting terrorism or as a potential source of rare earth minerals and commodities.
He notes, by way of another example, that the entire continent’s economy is smaller than that of Germany.
“If we are going to be a quarter of humanity in 25 years, we can’t afford to be invisible,” Nhleko says.
However, he warns that unless the current trajectory of slow development and low GDP growth changes, Africa’s peripheral position in global affairs is unlikely to improve.
Demographic dividend
A demographic dividend refers to a period when a country’s working-age population is larger than its dependent population (children and the elderly).
Asia — particularly South Korea, Taiwan, and China — famously leveraged a similar demographic shift in the late 20th century to fuel decades of rapid economic growth. Africa is set to face a similar opportunity. The challenge lies in harnessing it effectively.
Nhleko cautions that accelerating technological change and rapid population growth make long-range planning essential to address the needs and socio-economic pressures of a projected 2.5-billion people.
In his view, the continent’s current development and GDP growth are too low to generate the 20- to 30-million jobs required to sustain its working-age population.
If the gap between demand and supply of basic needs is not closed,Africa risks facing a “ticking socio-economic time bomb”, he warns.
Africa to take up its rightful place and space
For decades, Nhleko has been a champion for doing business in Africa, an approach reflected in his various executive roles and investments.
The businessman is credited with driving MTN’s expansion. Under his leadership from 2002 to 2011, the group grew from five to 21 operations across Africa and the Middle East. It also gained more than 185-million subscribers to become one of the continent’s largest listed companies.
Now chairman of Phembani Group, Nhleko places responsibility on today’s leaders and graduates to prepare for the “Africa 2050 generation”, arguing for a “paradigm shift in Africa’s prospects” to ensure the continent occupies its rightful place in world affairs within a single generation.
Urging a more lateral mindset, he calls for the current generation to “leverage the asset of 2.5-billion people to develop scale and muscle in global trade and geopolitical influence”.
He also challenges the youth to look beyond individual gain: “You need to explore beyond the ‘what is in it for me?’ ... [and] focus on ‘how can I pursue my humanity-changing ambitions ... for the next generation?’”
Funding the re-imagination
In Nhleko’s view, opportunities abound across the continent, though he points to shortcomings, in certain cases, in both the public and private sectors in harnessing existing resources to optimum effect.
A population of 2.5-billion people “will need food, clothing, education, healthcare, housing, infrastructure, employment, and connectivity”, representing an enormous market to support Pan-African domestic consumption.
A recurring theme in Nhleko’s critique is the lack of urgency around the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA). He believes leaders must prioritise a “responsible and orderly flattening of borders” to enable a more efficient flow of human and financial capital.
A self-described “free marketeer” (provided markets are appropriately regulated), he argues that the private sector is the primary engine of innovation and growth and should not be hobbled by governments’ slower pace of implementation and execution.
Instead, it should drive innovation and policy ideas, spurring governments to create an enabling environment.
Major African firms, he says, must act as key strategists for continental integration.
This article was sponsored by MTN Group.
