Africa faces tougher choices as global powers compete for influence

African governments will need to make calculated decisions to protect their sovereign and strategic interests as global powers compete for influence across the continent, says research firm Oxford Economics.

France’s Africa push reflects the calculations of a power seeking to rebuild commercial and political standing after losing ground in West Africa and the Sahel.

Oxford Economics said African governments face a development landscape in which growth will increasingly depend on public-private partnerships, technology transfer and trade as Western governments reduce aid budgets under domestic fiscal pressure.

The firm cautioned that investment-led engagement would not eliminate geopolitical trade-offs. As China, Russia, Gulf states, Europe and the US compete for strategic influence across the continent, African governments may find they have more options and harder choices in roughly equal measure.

The assessment followed the Africa Forward Summit in Nairobi this week, co-hosted by French President Emmanuel Macron and Kenyan President William Ruto.

The gathering brought together more than 20 African heads of state, business executives and representatives of international organisations in what Paris framed as a reset of its relationship with the continent, away from aid and military engagement and toward investment and commercial partnerships.

Leaders attending included Ethiopia’s Abiy Ahmed, Egypt’s Abdel Fattah el-Sisi, Senegal’s Bassirou Diomaye Faye, Rwanda’s Paul Kagame and Nigeria’s Bola Tinubu. South African President Cyril Ramaphosa did not attend, though Naspers and Aspen Pharmacare participated at the corporate level.

“African states will still need to make calculated decisions to protect their sovereignty and strategic interests,” said Oxford Economics

“While France is attempting to market itself as a more equal and respectful partner, the summit also reflected a broader effort by a former colonial power to remain economically and politically relevant on the continent as its traditional influence declines in West Africa and the Sahel.”

France’s strong pivot towards Anglophone Africa further highlighted Paris’s recognition that its future influence will depend far more on business and investment ties than historical relationships alone.

The summit represented a recalibration of France’s Africa strategy at a time when anti-French sentiment and military withdrawals have eroded Paris’s standing in Mali, Niger and Burkina Faso. Rather than relying on historical ties, France is increasingly looking to business and investment relationships, particularly in anglophone Africa, as the foundation for future influence.

Macron announced $27bn in investment commitments mobilised through public and private partnerships, with $16bn expected from French firms and public funds and $11bn from African investors. The projects span clean energy, agriculture, AI, logistics, telecommunications, maritime infrastructure and health care, with France projecting around 250,000 jobs across Africa and France.

French shipping company CMA CGM committed roughly $800m toward modernising facilities at Kenya’s Port of Mombasa and announced further investments in AI and telecommunications.

Business Day