South Africa’s early AfCFTA gains highlight promise of regional trade

South Africa’s and other leading economies on the continent’s early gains under the African Continental Free Trade Area (AfCFTA) reflect the structure of Africa’s economies rather than an imbalance built into the trade pact, according Afcfta secretary-general Wamkele Mene.

The country’s exports under the AfCFTA have reached about R2bn since 2024, with shipments largely destined for Ghana, Kenya, Egypt, Rwanda, Cameroon and Algeria.

The figures have placed South Africa among the countries moving quickly to capitalise on the agreement, supported by its relatively diversified industrial base and established export sectors. Imports from AfCFTA implementing countries including Kenya, Egypt, Algeria, Morocco and Tunisia amounted to about R610m over the same period, pointing to a trade relationship that runs in both directions.

Mene, speaking to Business Day on the sidelines of Biashara Africa in Togo, said stronger economies tend to lead in the early years of any free trade agreement. He drew direct comparisons to the formative stages of the EU, the Trans-Pacific Partnership and North American Free Trade Agreement, each of which saw industrialised members generate the first significant trade flows before broader participation deepened across the bloc.

“It is expected those countries that have a particular character of a national economy, that have the export base, will be the ones that are first off the block,” Mene said.

“We’ve seen this around the world.”

“The test will be how we make sure countries benefit regardless of the size of their economy and their export base,” he said.

The early export figures may reflect existing capabilities rather than any structural advantage created by the agreement itself. Mene said the broader objective of the AfCFTA is ensuring countries of different sizes and levels of development are eventually able to participate more fully.

A total of 48 provisional schedules of tariff concessions covering 90% of member states’ tariff books had been adopted by the AfCFTA council of ministers of trade, with 23 countries completing their domestic ratification processes.

The AfCFTA Secretariat is focusing on industrial development and infrastructure investment to help more economies compete over time. Mene said interventions through the AfCFTA Adjustment Fund and partnerships with institutions such as the African Development Bank and Africa50 are intended to strengthen productive capacity across the continent.

Projects include support for data centre investments in Mozambique and plans to mobilise investment for special economic zones in Sierra Leone and Gambia

The continent’s 55 member states collectively represent $3.4-trillion in consumer and business spending. Building out that domestic market is not a retreat from global trade but a structural hedge against dependence on external partners whose terms can shift without warning.

Stellenbosch Business School guest lecturer in corporate and development finance Jason Hamilton said the AfCFTA has become one of Africa’s most important tools for navigating those shifts.

Hamilton said the wars in Ukraine and the Middle East, alongside changing trade alliances, had created opportunities for Africa to position itself as an alternative route for trade, investment and production.

“AfCFTA provides a critical buffer as advanced economies turn inward and geopolitical blocs harden. Regional integration is our safety net. By trading more with our African peers, we become less beholden to the whims of distant powers,” he said.

*Business Day’s coverage of the Biashara Afrika 2026 was made possible by the AfCFTA Secretariat.