In solidarity with ANC president Cyril Ramaphosa I am going to stick my neck out and suggest that the party can learn from the DA and other parties on how to turn around its electoral fortunes.
The party is yet to devise a sound strategy to deal with the dramatic drop in electoral support it suffered in last year’s elections. Many observers have seen this as the inevitable decline of a liberation movement that has been in power for too long.
The Indian National Congress, which ushered in independence on the subcontinent in 1947 and is now in the political wilderness, is usually cited as exhibit A to make that case. Or, closer to home, there is the decline in electoral support for Zanu-PF, which now maintains control over Zimbabweans through draconian measures, while in Mozambique Frelimo has also seen its majority at the time of independence in 1976 steadily decline.
This is where the ANC could also take a leaf out of the DA’s playbook: be ruthless about winning at the polls. When it saw its electoral fortunes tank under Mmusi Maimane, a review panel’s report led to Maimane’s resignation from the DA. In his 2021 book, former DA leader Tony Leon described Maimane’s election as DA leader as “an experiment gone wrong”. Under Helen Zille it managed to gather into its fold the majority of conservative white, Indian and coloured voters.
The ANC should also be looking at international experience from across the spectrum, not just Beijing or Hanoi. For example, Japan’s Liberal Democratic Party lost power in 2009 for only the second time after 54 years of near-continuous rule. Complacency, assuming it was irreplaceable and losing touch with younger voters’ concerns, contributed to that. It was able to bounce back after a thorough self-critique and a clear, albeit right-wing, economic message under Shinzo Abe.
India’s Hindu nationalist BJP came to power by mixing ethnic and religious nationalism with a compelling vision for India’s future. The left has also shown a capacity to learn and achieve turnarounds. Brazil’s Workers’ Party, which was removed by a coalition led by Jair Bolsonaro, returned to power by positioning itself against the threats posed by the right-wing coalition to democracy and economic justice.
Every successful turnaround has involved engagement with younger voters who don’t remember the party’s glory days. Canada’s previously dominant Liberal Party was out in the wilderness in 2006-15, returning to power under the leadership of the youthful Justin Trudeau.
Chile is a good example of how countries can quickly forget their painful past and vote in parties that were responsible for terror and repression. Gabriel Boric’s leftist coalition won in 2021 after years of centre-right rule. They credit their victory to creative use of digital campaigning, addressing economic issues, and offering hope instead of nostalgia.
Another parallel for the ANC is Argentina’s once dominant Radical Civic Union, which splintered into several factions and breakaway parties.
So, if I were to advise the ANC I would recommend that it starts behaving more like a political party, with a laser focus on winning elections, and less like a broad church national liberation movement.
The ANC cannot wish away the state capture years, the service delivery crises, growing unemployment, low economic growth, and ongoing crime and corruption implicating its cadres ― all of which are making it synonymous with mismanagement and corruption. It must address that decisively and stop seeing governing in coalition as a poisoned chalice or a humiliation.
Coalitions can be used to enhance its image, not an arena where it arm-wrestles opposition parties. An improvement in service delivery where it governs is the surest way of winning back voters.
Will the ANC’s 2027 elective conference see more splits or will it be able to unite and win back into its fold those who have walked out in frustration?
• Abba Omar is director of operations at the Mapungubwe Institute for Strategic Reflection.
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