DOUGLAS MASON: Ukraine has useful modern warfare cards in its hand

Ukraine’s defence against Russia in the current war has largely depended on Western arms supplies and the transfer of Nato know-how. But that dynamic has been shifting to domestic supply, technology and tactical expertise. Ukraine is now a clear leader in modern warfare through its own battlefield experience and homegrown military technology.

In drones that expertise is now unrivalled. The Ukraine-Russia conflict is redefining modern warfare. Western militaries and defence companies understand that they must learn from this and that they need to be players there. That gives Ukraine real leverage for the first time.

A booming domestic defence sector is integrating with European supply chains, signing co-production joint ventures with Western arms manufacturers, localising hi-tech defence components and fostering the growth of private defence firms as well as expansion of its legacy industrial enterprises. The defence sector accounted for a third of economic growth last year, lifting an economy that expanded by 2.9%. A wartime ban on exports has been lifted.

Drone and missile technology are attracting most interest and a network of successful defence start-ups has emerged. There are now at least 300 drone developers in-country. Unlike Russia’s top-down, state-directed and mostly state-owned military enterprises, Ukraine relies on private companies, which compete vigorously with each other.

A whole ecosystem has developed to enable their growth, drawing from the country’s vibrant pre-war tech sector, and streamlined regulation to speed up procurement and foster innovation. These companies work closely with their main client, the Armed Forces of Ukraine (AFU), in developing equipment based on battlefield experience that is adapted through feedback and innovation.

Ukraine may now be the world’s second-largest drone developer measured by sales, after China, making 2-million units last year and aiming to scale that up to 10-million next year. Qualitatively, it is the global leader. To be relevant in drones these days, one observer has said, “You have to be in Ukraine.”

Ukraine is largely dominant in naval drones and four aerial drone types:

• Short-range first-person view (FPV) drones for surveillance and attack on the battlefield;
• Long-range unmanned aerial vehicle (UAV) attack drones deployed against industrial and military sites deep inside Russia, but which have smaller payloads than missiles; and
• Interceptor drones, which are increasingly important for air defence over Ukrainian cities. They are also more cost-effective than traditional systems.

A Russian drone incursion into Poland in September had to be countered by F-35 Nato jets using $450,000 air-launched missiles. Ukrainian interceptor drones cost between $1,000 and $5,000. Ukraine is rapidly improving the capabilities of its drone fleet, extending range, bomb payloads, attack capabilities and, critically, AI to direct swarms. Next in development are mid-range drones that could extend the battlefield kill-zone to 60km behind front lines.

Indigenous missile technology is becoming decisive against Russian energy production — 20% is offline due to military action — and without which it cannot finance the war. Ukraine is deploying its long-range FP-5 Flamingo missile, which has some capabilities that exceed American Tomahawks.

There is some mystery around the Flamingo, developed by Ukrainian start-up Fire Point but near identical to the F-5 missile of the British-Emirati Milanion Group company. It is thought that a quiet way has been found by the West to give Ukraine a knock-off cruise missile. The FP-5 is now being produced at scale and numerous other missile types are coming from other domestic companies.

As military technology and adaptation continue, Ukraine and Russia are engaged in an arms race, as the Russians are also improving. Ukraine’s decentralised and entrepreneurial defence sector is well suited to speed and innovation compared with Russia’s state industries, which have scale. However, scale is no longer such an advantage.

In the drone sector, change is so constant that inventories can be made obsolete. Western defence systems are proving vulnerable to battlefield innovations coming out of Ukraine. American Patriot air defence missiles are now less efficient following Russian modifications. Interception rates have fallen sharply since July.

Traditional weapons systems are in the process of being made semi-obsolete. Some that were impactful earlier on in this war were “of very mixed effectiveness” now, former CIA director David Petraeus said at a conference in Kyiv this month. Main battle tanks are vulnerable to inexpensive aerial drones. A 15km kill zone along the frontlines in which anything in the open is vulnerable makes an armoured, or any other, breakthrough unlikely. Conditions in the kill zone are unlike anything Western militaries have ever faced.

In naval warfare, Ukraine’s uncrewed surface drones and anti-ship missiles have already won the “Battle of the Black Sea”, banishing the Russian fleet to port. There is debate in military circles over whether this spells fatal vulnerability for capital ships against anti-ship missiles. The competing explanation is the poor quality of the Russian navy. After the state-of-the-art Russian cruiser Moskva was sunk by Ukrainian missiles, an internal investigation found that most of its defences and other capabilities had been disabled through incompetence or theft. Russia has lost 28 surface ships and a submarine to Ukrainian missiles and sea-borne drones. The impact of new Ukrainian submarine drones is much anticipated.

Military analysts believe that Ukraine has achieved tactical superiority and retains the initiative in holding back Russia, which is making minimal territorial gains at terrible cost. Less than a battle for territory, the war is about a race for technology.

For now Ukraine has the edge, but Russia is also innovating and may not be far behind. Both are ahead of Europe and the US, and that has created a vulnerability. Nato and Western defence companies need to develop partnerships with Ukraine and learn from its experience. Critically, they want to access valuable data collected by its drone force that can feed into AI learning models. Western defence companies are now heavy investors in Ukraine via licensing, joint ventures and foreign direct investment. The US and Ukraine are said to be in discussion over a five-year $50bn drone deal.

This changes the relationship now that Ukraine has things the West in general, and the US in particular, want. It does hold some cards, contrary to what was told to President Volodymyr Zelensky in the Oval Office in February.

• Mason, an associate of Johannesburg-based risk and resilience consultancy Eunomix, lives in Rosendal, Free State. He is on assignment in Ukraine.