It is looking increasingly likely that the mixed performance of SA’s farming sector in 2025 will continue into 2026.
The favourable weather outlook, farmers’ exuberant intentions to increase the area they will plant for summer grains and oilseeds, and the general positive sentiment in the horticulture industry are encouraging factors going into 2026.
We may be approaching another year of ample harvests in these subsectors, which will boost the farming economy. During the 2024/25 production season, the output of summer grains and oilseeds increased 30%, reaching 20-million tonnes. This came after a year of midsummer drought, which weighed on the farming sector.
Various fruits, wine grapes and vegetables also saw robust harvests compared with the previous season. It is due to such harvests that we remain optimistic that SA’s farming sector will experience a strong recovery in 2025 and that this momentum is likely to continue into 2026.
However, this outlook does not extend across the sector. The livestock industry, which accounts for nearly half of the SA farming economy, has been under strain.
Earlier in the year, the livestock industry faced challenges from higher feed costs and the outbreak of foot-and-mouth disease (FMD). Feed prices have now eased substantially due to the ample grain harvest, but FMD remains a challenge.
While the government and private sector have been collaborating on vaccinations and improving surveillance, among other interventions, the spread has not abated. The continuation of the spread also means that various export markets remain closed, which weighs on the financial stability of livestock farming businesses.
We are now approaching the end of 2025, and it appears likely that we will enter 2026 with similar challenges still present in the livestock industry. Beyond the need to control the spread of the disease, SA has yet to make meaningful progress in the manufacturing of the FMD vaccine and other vaccines. The weakening of the Onderstepoort Biological Products (OBP) and the Agricultural Research Council (ARC) capabilities remains a constraint. While we are aware that policymakers are discussing this, we have yet to see meaningful progress on plans to revive the organisations and build up their capabilities.
As work continues to revive the OBP and ARC there is also a need to assess the deep involvement of the private sector, not only in planning but also in the manufacturing of some animal vaccines that SA needs.
A scan of the firms that can collaborate with the government to ensure the country has the necessary vaccines, not only for FMD, but also for other diseases, should be a priority for the agriculture department. It is increasingly clear that, unlike in the past, the occurrence of animal diseases is more frequent these days, derailing the country from its long-term objective of being an export-oriented livestock industry.
The frequent outbreaks of animal disease also pose reputational risks to other industries that are not directly affected. A case in point is the wool industry, whose exports were once temporarily restricted in China due to FMD. The disease was not in sheep but in cattle. Still, China feared risks and closed imports. A protocol exists for handling wool exports to China during outbreaks; however, reputational risks remain.
In essence, it seems likely that we will transition into 2026 with prospects of continued uneven growth in SA’s agriculture. The livestock industry may remain constrained by animal diseases, while the horticulture and field crop subsectors are expected to benefit from favourable weather conditions and a vibrant export market that remains resilient despite US tariffs.
• Sihlobo is chief economist at the Agricultural Business Chamber of SA and a senior fellow in Stellenbosch University’s department of agricultural economics.
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