LUNGILE MASHELE: Coal debate must be about emissions management not coal’s existence

Global coal consumption is defying expectations. Instead of falling by 40% by 2035, as McKinsey projected, coal use is set to increase by 1% during the same period, driven by surging electricity demand, China’s commissioning of coal plants, and industrial needs tied to electric vehicles, AI and data centres.

This persistence underscores a harsh reality: the energy transition is not linear, and coal remains deeply entrenched in global energy systems.

Global electricity consumption is growing due to the electrification of transport, heating and industry, which is accelerating worldwide. While renewables are proliferating, they cannot meet the surge in demand, especially for baseload power.

According to S&P Global, China commissioned 21GW of coal-fired capacity in the first half of 2025, the highest in nearly a decade, and is on track to add over 80GW this year alone. Despite record renewable installations, which are expected to exceed 500GW of wind and solar power by 2025, coal remains essential for maintaining grid stability during periods of peak demand and the intermittency of renewable energy sources.

China’s commissioning of new coal capacity this year reflects a pragmatic approach to energy security.

The global push for electric vehicles has driven demand for nickel, a key component in batteries. Nickel smelting and refining are energy-intensive processes, often powered by coal in countries such as Indonesia and China, which reinforces coal’s industrial role despite the transition to renewable energy sources.

AI is driving an unprecedented boom in data centres, which require 24/7 reliable power. The International Energy Agency projects data centre electricity demand will double by 2030, with fossil fuels, especially coal and gas, meeting much of this growth in the near term due to their dispatchability

Against this backdrop, electricity minister Kgosientsho Ramokgopa recently criticised the domestic coal industry for its silence in the national energy debate. His remarks highlight a paradox: while global coal producers are actively defending their role, SA’s coal sector appears muted, despite coal still supplying more than 70% of the country’s electricity.

Major employer

For SA, these global trends matter. Rising Asian demand could sustain coal exports, offering short-term economic relief. Coal remains a major employer and export earner, contributing 2.4% to GDP. SA exported more than 52-million tonnes of coal in 2024, mainly to Asia — India being the largest buyer.

Coal exports generate billions in foreign exchange, supporting the balance of trade and fiscal revenues. Coal supports about 90,000 direct jobs, with many more in indirect roles across rail, road, and shipping logistics, as well as maintenance and services.

Coal mining accounts for more than 20% of total mining employment, making it a major employer in Mpumalanga and Limpopo. Municipalities in coal regions such as Mpumalanga rely heavily on coal-linked economic activity for local revenue and infrastructure development.

Across Africa, the stakes are similar. With more than 600-million people lacking access to electricity, coal provides affordable baseload power, jobs and economic opportunities

The 1% rise in coal use globally, against predictions of a steep decline, validates Ramokgopa’s argument that coal cannot be ignored in energy and economic planning. But silence from the coal industry is not an option. SA must lead a transparent and pragmatic debate, one that acknowledges the vital role of coal while accelerating investment in renewables, grid flexibility and technologies that reduce emissions.

Yet, Ramokgopa’s warning is clear: the debate should not be about coal’s existence but about emissions management. His call for clean coal technologies mirrors global efforts to reconcile coal use with climate commitments. Failure to engage risks will leave SA reactive, rather than strategic, in a rapidly evolving global energy landscape.

• Mashele, an energy economist, is a member of the board of the National Transmission Company of SA.