It’s often said that heads of state experiencing intractable domestic problems turn to foreign policy to salvage their reputations. This is usually an escape hatch reserved for the leaders of large, powerful states whose foreign policy stances can make a difference on the world stage.
I don’t know if these sorts of considerations were in President Cyril Ramaphosa’s mind when he — the leader of a mere middle-sized and deeply troubled state — waded into the thickets of foreign policy. But if so, he has demonstrated huge smarts and a large measure of courage in his government’s conduct of foreign policy, which, if followed through, will contribute to a much-needed sea change in international relations.
Phoney “peace deals”, self-destructive trade policies, challenging the sovereignty of states such as Brazil, Mexico and Canada, bombing Iran, blowing up random small boats in the Caribbean, threatening to invade Venezuela and Nigeria — these represent just some of Donald Trump’s grand cock-ups in leading a country whose foreign policies do matter. Little old South Africa may have just contributed to making him and his country matter somewhat less.
The high points of Ramaphosa’s presidency are undoubtedly the successful and hugely consequential indictment of Israel before the International Court of Justice and the masterful handling of his chairmanship of the G20. They’re on a par with Nelson Mandela’s excoriation of George Bush’s invasion of Iraq.
These recent South African foreign policy triumphs were achieved in confrontation with the world stage’s leading bully. But Ramaphosa didn’t seek this confrontation with the US. Rather, Trump stuck his jaw out and said, “hit me if you dare”, and the little guy obliged by smashing him on the nose. And everyone knows the lonely fate of a bully whose arrogance, stupidity and venality have been so publicly exposed, a bit like the achievement of the little boy who had the temerity to observe that the emperor had no clothes.
One can only imagine what the rest of the G20 had to say to one another in their private exchanges, polite versions of which have been publicised by the leaders of France and Norway. But it requires little imagination to think “petulant, arrogant, spoilt little boy who left with his toys because no-one else wanted to play his game”. Even the wimpy UK prime minister may review his cringeworthy servility to his US counterpart, if for no other reason than that if the next blow is to Trump’s stomach, it may well be Keir Starmer who ends up with a bloody nose.
Trump has undoubtedly become such an enthusiastic participant in foreign policy to distract attention from his domestic troubles (and, of course, to win a Nobel prize!). Paul Krugman (who actually does have a Nobel prize) observes that his approval rating in opinion polls has plunged, confirmed by blowout Democratic Party victories in Virginia and New Jersey on November 4.
Then there’s his humiliation at the hands of a “lunatic communist” in New York’s mayoral election and the setback administered by the voters of California to his attempts to rig the next election; and the enormous swings in public confidence from the Republican Party (now no longer distinguishable from Trump’s Maga cult) to the Democrats in every area of public policy (except immigration); signs of disquiet among his terrified supporters in Congress; the Epstein papers saga; his property development at his Pennsylvania Avenue pad; increasing inflation as his trade policy starts to bite; poor employment figures; growing disaffection with the brutality of the US immigration police; Maga opposition to his craven support for the tech overlords; and grumbles from his electoral base at opposition to the international adventures of their “America First” president.
Of course, Trump has already announced on Truth Social, his very own social media platform, that “South Africa will NOT be receiving an invitation to the 2026 G20, which will be hosted in the Great City of Miami, Florida next year. South Africa has demonstrated to the World they are not worthy of Membership anywhere, and we are going to stop all payments and subsidies to them, effective immediately.”
It’ll be interesting to see how the other G20 members — particularly Brazil, Russia, India and China, our fellow Brics founding members — respond if Trump makes good on his threat to exclude South Africa from the next G20. Will any of these countries display the courage South Africa has shown if faced by a unilateral decision of the US to determine membership of the G20?
Trump has been written off before. But I’ll make bold to say he’s clearly in a downward spiral now. It’s not clear how he’ll attempt to arrest this. He’ll undoubtedly do all in his considerable power to rig the US midterm elections. He’ll use the fragile US fiscus — and test his fragile coalition — to buy electoral support. He’ll fly around the world looking for conflicts to impose himself on.
He may even attempt to mount a charm offensive. Difficult though it is to imagine an active proponent of fear as a means of dealing with his opponents using charm as a weapon for winning over his detractors, his rather pathetic attempt to ingratiate himself with Zohran Mamdani, the left-wing mayor-elect of New York, is evidence of his charm in action, not to mention his hypocrisy and mendacity.
It’ll be difficult for the US to recover from the Trump era. The state department will not be resurrected at the stroke of a pen. USAID won’t be re-established immediately. The damage done to the great American universities won’t be easily repaired, nor will the harm done to multilateral initiatives such as the G20, not to mention to institutions such as the World Health Organisation and other UN agencies.
This will ultimately be for the American electorate to resolve. But a prosperous US, one that is wedded to a multilateral world order, is in the whole world’s interest. This will not happen while Trump is in power, and God bless Ramaphosa for South Africa’s small contribution to his downfall.
Meanwhile, back at the ranch, much needs to be done. Fortunately, ending “white genocide” is not one. A priority is to demonstrate to the Johannesburg residents that their social services will be delivered as effectively for them as for the G20.
Dealing with a rogue South African Police Service is another priority that should command the president’s attention. The inquiries march on. It’s way too early to pass judgment on the Mkhwanazi/Mchunu/Sibiya/Khumalo saga, but if I were president, I’d already be thinking about how to deal with “General” Bheki Cele.
Ramaphosa has already demonstrated that his ability to deal with a global warlord is a strong suit. Though I recognise that our homegrown varieties may be tougher opponents, the calm and the tactical nous Ramaphosa has just demonstrated is evidence of a winning hand. Prepare to play it!
• Lewis, a former trade unionist, academic, policymaker, regulator and company board member, was a co-founder and director of Corruption Watch.
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