Rumours of President Cyril Ramaphosa’s departure or removal from office have been in overdrive lately, but are greatly exaggerated.
Heading into the ANC national general council (NGC) next week, Ramaphosa is on a far stronger footing than his predecessor was during the same period in his second term.
Former president Jacob Zuma was politically strong but heavily compromised by the time the party’s midterm policy meeting was held during his second term. He already had the Nkandla upgrade scandal, the repurposing of state-owned entities and the Gupta family’s Waterkloof landing under his belt when he faced party faithful at the 2015 NGC.
Just two months after that October 2015 meeting Zuma axed former finance minister Nhlanhla Nene, replacing him with Des van Rooyen, who had visited the Gupta compound over seven consecutive days in the run-up to his appointment.
Van Rooyen was removed three days later after the rand tanked, but before his appointment, which blew open the clandestine state capture project, there was already deep concern in the upper echelons of the ANC over the Gupta family’s influence over Zuma.
Ramaphosa’s political standing now could not be more different. While the ANC lost its national majority in the 2024 election, this was directly attributable to Zuma’s formation of the MK party. Ramaphosa’s failure (along with the rest of the ANC executive) has been in indulging his predecessor for way too long. After all, it was he and then justice minister Ronald Lamola who approved the special remission of sentence that saw Zuma released from prison after his medical parole was deemed unlawful.
The real question is whether Ramaphosa will be the first ANC president since former president Nelson Mandela to conclude his business with the SA state on his own terms, given that both of Mandela’s successors, Zuma and Thabo Mbeki, were prematurely removed from office. It may be early days, but there is already thought being given to how Ramaphosa can break the curse that has afflicted second-term ANC presidents.
There are those who believe Ramaphosa will willingly and graciously exit office once he is replaced as party president in 2027. Again, this would break with tradition. Who could forget Zuma’s long-winded, mostly meaningless interview with the SABC when he was on his way out back in 2018? A decade earlier there were rumours (with no evidence to back them up) of military generals being on standby in case former president Mbeki opted for an entirely different exit plan.
One difference between Ramaphosa and both of his predecessors is that he has done little to antagonise his deputy. By all accounts his personal relationship with deputy president Paul Mashatile is cordial, respectful and professional, and Ramaphosa has done little to thwart Mashatile’s obvious presidential ambitions.
Another is that Ramaphosa’s popularity heading into the second half of his second term appears to be on the up, in stark contrast to Zuma’s. Zuma had in effect collapsed the economy with his interference in the National Treasury, and there was a society-wide mobilisation against his presidency before Derek Hanekom braved calling for his removal at an NEC meeting after the 2016 local government elections.
In contrast, Ramaphosa’s reforms appear to be starting to yield results, there is a cautious optimism on the economic outlook and the Madlanga commission is casting a spotlight on the deep flaws in the criminal justice system, raising hopes that the crime and corruption crisis facing the country will finally be addressed.
The successful G20 summit was another leg up for Ramaphosa and appointing a permanent ambassador to the US is set to be next on his “to do” list, followed by a crack successor to Shamila Batohi to head the National Prosecuting Authority.
All of this increases the likelihood that Ramaphosa may yet avoid a premature exit from the presidency — unless, of course, he decides to do so of his own volition.
• Marrian is Business Day editor at large.
