With a characteristic disregard for what words actually mean, in a triumph of branding over truth the US administration announced “reciprocal” tariffs on South Africa and most other countries from the start of August.
Worldwide, US imports have declined as its tariffs have risen, with a particularly sharp drop in its purchases from China. That in turn has accelerated the surge in Chinese exports to the rest of the world, including South Africa.
Trends in South Africa’s exports to the US reflect the chaos in US trade policy over the past year, but so far the “reciprocal” tariffs seem to have had only a limited effect. Export data for South Africa is available only through October, though, and for other countries mostly only to September, so the trends may well change.
In both dollars and rand, from August to October, South Africa’s exports to the US actually increased faster than its sales to the rest of the world. The main reason is that the US tariffs exempt most crude minerals, which constitute a third of South Africa’s total exports, and the bulk of those are to the US.
Taken together, platinum, gold and diamonds accounted for more than 60% of South Africa’s exports to the US in October, with platinum alone contributing close to 30%. The share of these precious metals had climbed from almost 45% in July. The increasing share reflects a jump in both volume and world prices.
By weight, exports of platinum to the US climbed 77% from July to October alone, while prices rose about 10% globally. Meanwhile, gold prices hit historic highs in the past few months and South Africa’s total gold exports increased by a fifth. Figures for gold exports to the US alone are not available, however.
Trends in car exports to the US are more mixed and much more volatile. South Africa’s exports of fully assembled cars ked more than a decade ago, in the early 2010s. Then they dropped 80% from 2013-19. A recovery in exports through 2024 spiked just above 2013 heights in constant rand terms, but the year to October 2025 brought a 50% fall. This rollercoaster ride left South Africa’s car exports to the US equal to 2022 in constant rand terms.
The 2025 collapse was due primarily to the US imposition of a 25% tariff on cars from all countries at the start of the year. This tariff largely pre-empted the “reciprocal” rates in August and effectively cancelled preferential access for South African cars under the US’s historic African Growth & Opportunities Act. Overall, US imports of cars fell 22% in the year to August 2025.
The effects of US tariffs on China have been more straightforward. From July to September total US imports dropped 4% compared to the same period in 2024. Excluding inputs for data centres, which have seen trillions of dollars of investment as a result of the US bet on AI, US imports were down 7%. Virtually all of this resulted from shrinking US purchases from China, with a 40% drop in July–September 2025 over the same period a year earlier.
While China has lost much of its US market, its total exports have been rising. That has intensified competition for South African producers in both domestic and international markets. From August to September, imports from China were up a fifth in dollar terms compared with a year earlier. By far the largest increases were in vehicles, electronics and machinery, rather than the more traditional imports of clothing, shoes and steel products.
In short, draconian US tariffs on South Africa from August have not affected total exports as much as feared. They do, however, underscore the fundamental changes affecting global value chains, which are likely to have a profound impact on South Africa’s growth path in future.
• Makgetla is a senior researcher with Trade & Industrial Policy Strategies.
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