Most military experts agree that modern warfare is undergoing a profound transformation driven by the rapid rise of drone technology. All signs suggest this evolution will continue to accelerate as the military capacity for drone warfare grows faster than the ability to defend against it.
The miniaturisation and cost reduction of drone components has led to an enormous increase in the deployment of more autonomous unmanned aerial vehicles for both reconnaissance and attack. As a result, both the frontlines and rear areas, stretching for tens of kilometres, have become increasingly vulnerable.
Naturally, countering such threats is now a central focus of military operations, and future wars are likely to revolve around the struggle for “drone superiority” in the skies, requiring armed forces, and defence budgets, to reorganise around this new objective. The Russian military has already announced a dedicated service branch for unmanned systems. Others will follow suit.
Perhaps the most consequential effect of this revolution has been the unprecedented visibility drones enable, which has effectively removed the “fog of war”. This trend can only intensify, with hardware and software developments leading towards ever-increasing battlefield transparency.
The war in Ukraine already illustrates this new reality, with forces dispersed widely and operating at extremely low densities by historical standards. The enhanced ability to detect, identify and precisely strike targets has made concentrated troop formations and concealed manoeuvres almost impossible, fundamentally altering how military strategists plan their campaigns.
The widespread use of unmanned aerial vehicles is resulting in a new form of remote warfare, where co-ordination and execution occur at unlimited range from the front lines. In the long run this could result in fewer human casualties as drones, lasers and robots do battle while tanks, men and artillery are relegated to the sidelines.
That said, if the human cost of war declines, conflicts risk becoming less politically costly, leading to a waste of more money, talent and resources, even if more soldiers’ lives are spared. Societies could be tempted to deploy drone and robot armies, which may not produce as many casualties but would still consume enormous economic resources.
Drones have already changed the face of combat, with battlefield transparency dispersing troop formations and eliminating the need for line-of-sight fire in favour of indirect fire. This has created new tactics and procurement requirements for modern militaries.
Farewell to arms
For centuries military power has been based on line-of-sight weaponry, with command structures designing tactics to perceive and strike the enemy directly. But drones can identify and attack targets far beyond the range of human sight, giving these remote and dispersed indirect-fire systems far greater survivability than weapons such as tanks.
Since World War 2 tanks have embodied the concept of protected, line-of-sight firepower. Yet in today’s combat environment they are highly visible and easily targeted. As such, the tank’s historical role in breakthrough and manoeuvre warfare might become redundant.
Efforts to preserve the tank’s relevance by adding active protection systems or equipping them with long-range munitions have failed to justify their enormous cost, and it remains uncertain what strategic value the heavily armoured but increasingly vulnerable vehicles still provide.
Traditional artillery faces a similar dilemma. Though Russia’s enormous artillery output has seemingly restored its prominence, the economics of using expensive guns and ammunition for missions drones can perform more cheaply and precisely has been called into question.
The US, with all its expensive military equipment, is not immune either. A drone swarm could take out a far more expensive aircraft carrier and its fighter jets. Drones are also cheaper than the air defence systems required to shoot them down, giving nations such as Iran the capacity to retaliate against neighbours with far larger military budgets.
Drones lead to new tactics in Ukraine
According to Russian statistics, by early 2025 drones accounted for three-quarters of all kills in Ukraine. This has led to the dispersion of forces, with extremely low combat formations (as few as two or three soldiers), radically altering the organisation of troops and their interactions.
Drones have also dramatically extended the range at which individual soldiers can strike enemy targets. This has not only altered the concentration and manoeuvre of forces. It has also created vulnerabilities at the operational level as supply lines come under fire.
On the Ukrainian front the widespread use of drones has made the resupply of frontline troops challenging, with transport convoys easily detected and destroyed from above. This explains why Ukrainian troops have been reluctant to withdraw from heavily fortified urban areas even when encircled by Russian forces.
Drones have also transformed battlefield tactics, with frontal assaults replaced by drone-dominated engagements that have seen small camouflaged infiltration teams advance slowly through enemy lines to locate and eliminate drone operators. The era of large battalions is over.
The war in Ukraine marks the end of a century of mechanised warfare that has characterised industrial societies, with a complete evolution in military science occurring due to unmanned aerial vehicles and the transition to digital warfare.
Drone production for the Ukraine war is approaching hundreds of thousands of units per month, volumes comparable to artillery shell manufacturing. Drones, frequently operating in swarms, target every visible soldier and vehicle, making them the primary instrument of destruction.
This technological shift has a levelling effect, eroding the advantage of larger or wealthier armies. The vast fleets of tanks, aircraft and ships once seen as decisive are now less relevant against swarms of inexpensive drones. This is how Yemen successfully undermines some of the world’s most powerful navies in the Red Sea.
Impact on defence sector investments
Meanwhile, major arms producers who saw their stock prices skyrocket as they churned out expensive hardware and ammunition for the Ukrainian conflict could be in for a reality check when governments realise these outdated weapons are no longer worth the expense.
European arms makers already watched their stock prices plummet in November due to US President Donald Trump’s most recent diplomatic push for peace in Ukraine, and while some analysts forecast a recovery due to a structural increase in EU military spending, drones could still have the final say.
While the EU has changed its rules to exclude military expenditure from its budget caps, much of this spending will go to infrastructure (like reinforcing bridges to carry tanks), which means not all funds will be deployed to arms procurement. Meanwhile, the UK has already withdrawn from the EU’s Security Action For Europe defence fund.
This is not to say global military expenditure is likely to decrease. According to the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute, the combined revenue of the world’s 100 largest arms manufacturers hit almost $700bn in 2024 and continues to climb.
But considering drone procurement made up just 2% of this figure ($14bn), according to research from the Teal Group, conventional military expenditure may become unsustainable considering new battlefield dynamics, with changes in procurement strategies potentially having a major effect on the profitability of several listed defence industry contractors.
- Shubitz is an independent Brics analyst.
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