For most of the past decade the JSE has been defined by delistings, a thin new listings pipeline and a sense that the real growth stories were finding capital elsewhere. Private equity, trade buyers and offshore exchanges absorbed many of the country’s most interesting assets. Local investors learnt to live with a shrinking universe of listed opportunities.
As 2025 draws to a close, that position is being tested. No-one is talking about a boom, but a mix of global, local and exchange-specific developments suggests that South Africa’s capital markets may at least have moved off the bottom.
The global backdrop is the first part of the story. Emerging markets have spent the past two years in the shadow of US exceptionalism, with a strong dollar and high real yields pulling capital towards developed markets. Now the rate cycle looks closer to a plateau than a fresh ascent.
Inflation in many large emerging economies has eased from post-pandemic highs and several central banks are signalling that eventual easing is on the table. When US rates peak and the dollar loses momentum, risk appetite for emerging market assets has historically improved.
South Africa enters this phase with familiar baggage but also a powerful valuation argument. Growth has been weak, logistics and energy constraints persist, and policy noise has not disappeared. At the same time, years of foreign selling have left local equities deeply underowned and cheaply priced.
Years of foreign selling have left local equities deeply underowned and cheaply priced.
A recent report noted that foreign investors have been net sellers of South African equities throughout 2025, leaving the market one of the most underowned positions in emerging market funds. The obvious implication is that cheap South African stocks are expected to attract foreign buyers in 2026.
Currency market
There are complementary signals in the currency market. Recent analysis suggests that a gauge of expected volatility for the rand against the dollar is at its lowest level since the start of this century. Investors will not suddenly forget that the rand is cyclical, but a calmer currency removes one major objection when global asset allocators weigh up South African exposure or support local listings.
The second part of the story lies in how the exchange presents itself and how companies respond.
On the JSE side, there has been a clear attempt to re-engage international capital. The JSE’s recent capital markets day in London brought together portfolio managers, asset owners and JSE executives for discussions on inward listings, the role of South Africa in global portfolios and the state of investor sentiment. Outreach of this kind does not guarantee flows, but it signals that the bourse believes the case for South African assets is strong enough to take back on the road.
Low valuations, early hints of returning foreign interest, a calmer rand and a more outward-looking JSE have created the most constructive backdrop for listings in years.
On the issuer side, there are also signs of life. WeBuyCars and Boxer listed in 2024 and 2025 has already delivered more initial public offerings (IPOs) than the JSE has seen in several years, including the listings of Optasia and Cell C and the debut of smaller growth names. Data cited by Bloomberg suggests that the exchange is on track for its best year for IPO fundraising since 2017.
Looking ahead, much attention has settled on the potential listing of Fidelity Services Group, the country’s largest private security firm. Fidelity has hired a consortium of banks to advise on a possible IPO on the JSE, with most reports suggesting that 2026 is the earliest realistic window.
While the plans are still exploratory, and it would be unwise to over-interpret a single prospective listing, the fact that a large, domestically focused services business is prepared to explore public markets after a prolonged quiet period says something about how boardroom sentiment is shifting.
What would be needed to turn this moment into a cycle rather than a brief flurry of activity?
Better growth is the obvious starting point. South Africa’s long-term GDP performance has lagged its emerging market peers and many of the structural constraints on productivity and confidence have yet to be resolved. Without a more convincing improvement in the real economy, there will be limits to how far the market rerates or how many companies are prepared to trust that public capital will be rewarded with higher multiples over time.
A more favourable interest rate and currency mix would help too. The South African Reserve Bank has kept policy tight to anchor inflation expectations and support the rand. That discipline is necessary, but a prolonged period of high real rates will keep the cost of capital elevated and make equity issuance less attractive. The listings window tends to be most open when monetary policy, currency stability and political risk are at least pointing in the same general direction.
So have South Africa’s capital markets turned a corner? The honest answer is that they seem to have turned a corner, but not yet the corner. Low valuations, early hints of returning foreign interest, a calmer rand and a more outward-looking JSE have created the most constructive backdrop for listings in years, and a healthier pipeline suggests that corporate South Africa is at least reopening the conversation about public markets.
Whether this becomes a sustained cycle will depend on factors beyond the control of any single issuer or exchange, from global rates to domestic policy choices. For now, it seems the debate is about timing and how to turn a better macro and valuation story into a new chapter for listings.
• Silke is associate partner and South Africa head at Hudson Sandler.
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